Posted by Mike Caprio July 14, 2009

When we began Keeper League GM this winter, we wanted to use all of the resources that were available to us to help the Fantasy Baseball/Football GM (”You”) navigate the waters of “mainstream” reporting supplemented with statistical and visual insights on players from all levels.

For the statistically-attuned sports fan, baseball is by and large the most fun, mostly due to baseball documenting statistics (some good/some bad) for over 100 years.

Since I’ve started covering football this season I have realized…honestly…that Football statistics suck.

So…before we highlight the Top Dynasty Fantasy Football Wide Receivers, I’d like to hand out an unsolicited “plug” for Football Outsiders.com, a group that has been developing advanced statistical analysis for football for many years.

One of the great tools at Football Outsiders is KUBIAK, their projection system, which could only be described as similar to Baseball Prospectus‘ PECOTA.  If you are serious about Fantasy Football, check out KUBIAK at Football Outsiders.

Ready for a Breakout Season (Icon Sports Media)

Powered by our new KUBIAK projections…here are the Top 11 Pass Catchers for 2009.

1. Larry Fitzgerald (Age: 25)-2008 Stats-96 Catches, 1,431 Yards, 12 TD, 14.9 Avg., 78 Long, 0 T.O.

Fitzgerald, an immensely talented player operating in relative obscurity during his first three regular seasons in Phoenix, showcased his talent to the World last year in Super Bowl XLIII, further cementing himself as the top receiver in the league.  The offensive “bird” gang has returned, with Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin now joined by “Beanie” Wells.  Look for Fitzgerald to have another stellar season.

2. Calvin Johnson  (Age: 23)-2008 Stats-78 Catches, 1,331 Yards, 12 TD, 17.1 Avg., 96 Long, 2 T.O.

Johnson is heading into his third NFL season, the “magical” season for NFL WR’s.  For those who didn’t notice, CJ’s 2008 season was pretty magical on one of the worst teams in NFL history.   Look for a follow-up campaign as rookie Matthew Stafford will rely heavily on Calvin as his “go-to” guy.

3. Andre Johnson (Age: 27)-2008 Stats-115 Catches, 1,575 Yards, 8TD, 13.7 Avg., 65 Long, 1 T.O.

As I mentioned in my Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Football Keepers: Running Backs, I believe that the Texans are poised for a run, and Andre Johnson will be in the thick of it.  KUBIAK has Johnson projected at 1,300+ Yards and 11 TD’s—more scores with less yardage than one year ago.

4. Reggie Wayne (Age: 30)-2008 Stats-82 Catches, 1,145 Yards, 6 TD, 14.0 Avg., 65 Long, 0 T.O.

When did Reggie Wayne turn 30?  The question for me is whether Wayne, at age 30 is ready for the added attention that the departure of Marvin Harrison will deliver to him in 2009.  In all likelihood Dallas Clark or Anthony Gonzalez will be the beneficiary.  Still…my bet is that Peyton will find him 8-10 times in the end zone this season.

5. Randy Moss (Age: 32)-2008 Stats-69 Catches, 1,008 Yards, 11 TD, 14.6 Avg., 76 Long, 2 T.O.

The last full-season with Tom Brady, Moss set an NFL record.  While he will likely not attain such lofty records this season, my bet would be on 13+ TD’s.  KUBIAK happens to agree.

6. Steve Smith (Age: 30)-2008 Stats-78 Catches, 1,421 Yards, 6 TD, 18.2 Avg., 65 Long, 1 T.O.

Smith is one of the most dangerous WR’s in football.  If you give him space he will kill you; if you don’t, he’ll create space and kill you.  The one detractor for Smith is Pathers’ coach John Fox’s commitment to the run.  D’Angelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart will take a few TD’s away from Smith.  However, when/if they pack that box, Smith can outrun every safety/linebacker in the NFL.

7. Marques Colston (Age: 26)-2008 Stats-47 Catches, 760 Yards, 5 TD, 16.2 Avg., 70 Long, 0 T.O.

Admittedly I left Colston off my first round of Top 10’s (now 11), but upon opening KUBIAK, I reconsidered.  To have Drew Brees nearly set the single season passing record with his #1 receiver only catching 47 balls in 2008 is a red flag for me in ‘09.  However, the guys at Football Outsiders have Colston scoring 11 TD’s this upcoming season—so I’ll defer on this one.

8. Greg Jennings (Age: 25)-2008 Stats-80 Catches, 1,292 Yards, 9 TD, 16.2 Avg., 63 Long, 0 T.O.

Jennings was solid in Aaron Rodgers’ first season as a starter, and as a fantasy owner I would expect more of the same in 2009.  If he can improve on last season’s 8 drops, it could put his receiving numbers above 1,400+ yards.

9. Dwayne Bowe (Age: 24)-2008 Stats-86 Catches, 1,022 Yards, 7 TD, 11.9 Avg., 36 Long, 0 T.O.

Bowe is excited to have a Quarterback this season.  Combining that with a low pass catch average and 2^nd in the league in dropped passes in 2008, that are screaming for improvement, and that this season is Bowe’s third as an NFL WR, make for an ideal brew—all pointing to increased success for 2009 and beyond.

10. Vincent Jackson (Age: 26)-2008 Stats-59 Catches, 1,098 Yards, 7 TD, 18.6 Avg., 60 Long, 1 T.O.

Jackson was another player I originally left off my list, who after referring to KUBIAK prompted me to put him in.  Philip Rivers + a healthy LT +  the 2^nd toughest pass defensive strength of schedule could bode well for Rivers’ top possession target in 2009.  Note:  I’m still not a believer, but I can be converted.

11. Anquan Boldin (Age: 28)-2008 Stats-89 Catches, 1,038 Yards, 11 TD, 11.7 Avg., 79 Long, 3 T.O.

How do you ignore 11 TD’s?  Well…in a lot of ways Boldin was playing for a contract, a contract he did not get.  It will be interesting to see how this one unfolds.  If he had signed with the Giants, or Bears as was rumored, his stock would be much higher.  KUBIAK has him at 1,100+, 7 TD’s.  I’d go higher on the scores and bet on several outbursts on the sidelines.

Share this Post: