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Top 10 2010 Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Catchers

Submitted by Mike Caprio on February 14, 2010 – 1:40 pmOne Comment

Matt Wieters1While the Fantasy Baseball season doesn’t begin for most until next month, it seemed like an awfully long time to wait to begin scouting the field for the 2010 campaign.

As we wrote last year in our 2009 Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Keepers, Catcher is an interesting position. It is either way overvalued, or seriously undervalued depending on the league, so feel free to use this as your guide when determining the time to select (or keep) a Top Catcher.

Last season was a poor one for the position overall, outside of MVP Joe Mauer, a second half resurgence by last year’s top rated backstop Brian McCann and a return to form by Victor Martinez, the field disappointed from top to bottom.   That being said, here are our Top 10 2010 Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Catchers.

1. Joe Mauer: Age: 27: 2009 Stats: .365 Avg, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .443 OBP, .587 SLG, 1.030 OPS

Last season began with serious questions for both the Twins and Minnesota’s favorite son, as off-season kidney surgery complications robbed Mauer of spring training and the first month of the regular season.   However, it didn’t take long for him to set the tone for the season, as he clubbed his first home run in his first at-bat of 2009.  Mauer is the class of the position, but given the uncertainty of the friendly confines of the Twins’ new home, Target Field, the blustery conditions in Minneapolis may get him off to a slow start.  Keeper League GM’s will be very interested as ongoing negotiations for a long-term agreement with the Twins continue, while the Yankees and Red Sox wait for the opportunity to lock down perhaps the best hitting catcher in history.

2. Brian McCann: Age: 26: 2009 Stats: .281 Avg, 21 HR, 94 RBI, 4 SB, .349 OBP, .486 SLG, 834 OPS

McCann, last season’s Top Fantasy Baseball Keeper at Catcher had off the field medical complications of his own to deal with.  A botched laser eye procedure created discomfort that led to specialized contacts in 2009 and a second procedure to correct the issue this off-season. Under the circumstances McCann performed admirably, though with some regression off his 2008 breakout campaign.  He managed to stay on the field despite his vision related issues, and was easily the second best at the position.  His batting average drops for those in Roto can be directly attributed to a drop in walks and increase in strikeouts (64 in 2008 to 83 in 2009)—but given the aforementioned complications, it could just easily be an anomaly.  Consensus among most industry forecasts has McCann returning to his 2008 form at .290AVG/22 HR/96 RBI.

3. Matt Wieters: Age: 24: 2009 Stats: .288 Avg, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 0 SB, .340 OBP, .412 SLG, 753 OPS

Wieters was easily the most hyped position player in recent memory heading into last season.  Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA had his numbers off the charts—and anything short of a triple crown in his rookie campaign disappointed many a traditional fantasy baseball GM.  But…if you’re a Keeper League GM and you own him, you are in great shape.  In 96 games last season the switch hitting backstop hit 9 HR’s while adjusting to major league pitching.  His K/BB Ratio was 3.9, which would be solid were he a starter, but as a rookie slugger it hurt his overall numbers.  Most analysts agree that he will be .290-.295, 15-20 HR, and 75-90 RBI’s in 2010.  Considering his upside, he’s the most valuable Keeper not named Joe Mauer—but for those playing for 2010, McCann just nudged him out.

4. Victor Martinez: Age: 32: 2009 Stats: .303 Avg, 23 HR, 108 RBI, 1 SB, .381 OBP, .480 SLG, 861 OPS

Martinez was #10 on our list last season, coming off a terrible 2008 with the Tribe.  Given his age and his likely move to 1B/DH to make room for then back-up Kelly Shoppach, his success in ‘09 was far from guaranteed.  Heading into 2010, off a renaissance campaign, Martinez is poised to benefit from the departure of Jason Bay in Boston, allowing he and his Fantasy GM’s to benefit from additional “ducks on the pond” hitting behind Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia.  Balancing the needs of today vs. the needs of tomorrow is clearly one of the challenges of a Keeper League GM, but given the likely benefit in 2010, Martinez is clearly among the Top 5 Fantasy Catchers in the game.

5. Miguel Montero: Age: 27: 2009 Stats : .294 Avg, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 1 SB, .355 OBP, .478 SLG, 832 OPS

Montero, a much hyped prospect in the Diamondback system over the last several years, was finally given the opportunity when Chris Snyder went down early in the season in ‘09.  Montero didn’t disappoint, posting a 900 OPS during the 2nd half of 2009.  Entering his age-27 year in 2010, Montero should be entering his prime and is poised to post a .280 AVG/20 HR/70 RBI campaign should he retain the starting job in 2010.  Keep an eye on the Snyder/Montero battle during Spring Training, and expect a trade of the latter if the former wins out on Opening Day.

6. Geovany Soto: Age: 27: 2009 Stats: .218 Avg, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 1 SB, .321 OBP, .381 SLG, 702 OPS

What an ugly season for Soto and the Cubs.  After an incredible rookie campaign, Soto dropped off the map in 2009, posting an abysmal .218 AVG, attributed in part to an incredible drop in BABIP (.337 in 2008 to .251 in 2009), but all in all nauseating for those who had high expectations heading into 2009.  For me, it’s all about value when analyzing a player.  This is a good opportunity to buy low on a player due for a rebound in 2010.  Look for a 50-60 point boost in his average and likely a 100% improvement in his HR totals over 2009, making his final tally in 2010, .270 AVG/ 20 HR/70 RBI—not bad given the relative competition.

7. Jorge Posada: Age: 39: 2009 Stats: .285 Avg, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 1 SB, .363 OBP, .522 SLG, 885 OPS

If Posada weren’t nearly eligible for AARP membership, he would be sitting easily at #5 on this list.  But, this is a Keeper list and therefore age plays a huge part in evaluating talent.  Since he turned 37, Posada’s reputation as a relatively healthy soldier for fantasy baseball GM’s has taken a beating.  After averaging roughly 140 games per season since taking over the full-time catcher role in 2000, Posada has spent a significant period of time on the disabled list over the last two seasons.   Most analysts see last season as the high watermark remaining in Posada’s career—which I think most Fantasy GM’s would take.  Watch for a regression beginning next season—he’s perfect as a one year rental, or as a trade pawn to return a major league ready prospect at the deadline.

8. Kurt Suzuki: Age: 27: 2009 Stats  .274 Avg, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 8 SB, .313 OBP, .421 SLG, 734 OPS

Suzuki was a saving grace for many Fantasy GM’s last season considering the performance of the catcher position overall.  With little expectation, Suzuki managed to be among the top 10 in most major offensive categories among catchers.  While he won’t “wow” you, his likely .280 AVG/15 HR/75 RBI/5 SB is a solid holdover if you are grooming the position for one of the many upcoming backstops.

9. Buster Posey: Age: 23: 2009 Stats (AAA) :. 321 Avg, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .391 OBP, .511 SLG,  902 OPS

Some people may say, “what about Doumit or Iannetta or Napoli?”.  To me, I’d much rather have Buster Posey than any of them, even though he only has 17 MLB AB’s.  Truthfully, the same can be said for the next catcher on our list.  Posey profiles as a poor man’s Joe Mauer, projecting at .300 AVG/15 HR/70 RBI once he wins the full-time role in San Francisco.  Benjie Molina has returned for the 2010 season, and can serve as a great “handcuff” to use a fantasy football term, but Posey is the real-deal and should be acquired if available in your league.  Take a look at our Top Prospects on the Farm feature on Buster Posey last season for a more advanced profile.

10. Carlos Santana: Age: 24: 2009 Stats (AA) :. 290 Avg, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 2 SB, .413 OBP, .530 SLG,  943 OPS

Santana was stolen from the Los Angeles Dodgers at the deadline in 2008, and is among the top prospects in baseball heading into 2010.  Given the dearth of talent in Cleveland to begin the season, Indians’ GM Mark Shapiro may elect to keep Santana on the farm for a bit longer.  However, Santana profiles as a power hitting, switch hitting catcher in the mold of Victor Martinez (but with better receiving skills).  Lou Marson, the catcher the Indians received in the Cliff Lee deal, may begin the season as the starter, but I suspect that Santana will be up with the big club sometime in May to begin what should be a long and successful major league career.

Next up….Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Keepers: First Base

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One Comment »

  • Paul says:

    Can tell that a Yankee fan wrote this piece to leave a 39 year old Yankee on a keeper list!…lol

    He would be the only one that I would remove from this list for the likes of Iannetta or Jesus Montero, though you can argue Montero could be moved from the catcher spot but the same argument could be made for Posey.

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