Posted by Mike Caprio July, 8, 2009

Did you know that the average career of an NFL player is 3 and ½ seasons according to the NFLPA?

Ready to Make the Leap to #1 RB? (Icon Sports Media)

For those who elect to take the ball 300-400 times a season, the wear, tear and punishment reduces that career average by 30%. So, whether you’re a young man looking to make the pros as a rusher, or a savvy fantasy football owner, keep in mind that today’s top running back could just as quickly fade into obscurity.

Quarterbacks have replaced Running Backs as the top fantasy scorers in most fantasy football leagues, but the value of a top running back can be the difference between a contender and a champion. So…knowing when to “hold them, and knowing when to fold them” is increasingly important for Keeper League GM’s everywhere.

That being said, here are our Top 10 (with Honorable Mentions) Dynasty Fantasy Football Keepers: The Running Backs…

1. Adrian Peterson (Age: 24)-2008 Stats-1,760 Rushing Yards, 10 TD, 4.8 Avg., 4 TO’s, 125 Receiving Yards, 0 TD

The former Sooner has racked up over 3,000 yards and 23 scores in his first two seasons. Peterson is the class of the running back class due to his breakout, game-changing ability. Last season, without a meaningful Quarterback at the helm of the Vikings offense, Peterson racked up 384 touches from the line of scrimmage. Based on the rumblings of Brett Favre joining the Vikes, Peterson’s value could conceivably skyrocket as opposing defenses will be unable to “pack the box”, enabling Peterson to get into space and do what he does best. Miss would-be tacklers.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew (Age: 24)-2008 Stats-824 Rushing Yards, 12 TD, 4.2 Avg., 2 TO’s, 565 Receiving Yards, 2 TD

Admittedly, I am a bigger fan of Jones-Drew than the average fantasy GM. He’s occupied my RB1 or RB2 spot over the last two seasons. This year, however, he stands to gain a significant bump in carries after Fred Taylor’s departure for New England. An undersized dual-threat, Jones-Drew is a born playmaker, but one susceptible to breakdown based on his size and new workload. Putting those things aside…he had 14 scores in a committee role—where does he go from here?

3. Michael Turner (Age: 27)-2008 Stats-1,699 Rushing Yards, 17 TD, 4.5 Avg., 3 TO’s, 41 Receiving Yards, 0 TD

Sitting in “The Prime” LaDainian Tomlinson’s shadow can make anyone feel a little self conscious, and serve as an awesome motivator to kick-ass when you arrive in your new digs. Michael Turner did just that in his first season in Atlanta, scoring 17 TD’s and keeping just enough pressure off first-year QB Matt Ryan to lead them to the playoffs for the first time in 4 seasons. Now joined by long-time Chief Tony Gonzalez, Turner should have some more room to breathe at the point of attack. Look for a solid year from the second-year starter.

4. Chris Johnson (Age: 23)-2008 Stats-1,228 Rushing Yards, 9 TD, 4.9 Avg., 1 TO’s, 260 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

I don’t think anyone but maybe Chris’s mom saw this one coming. The Titans took criticism in the NFL scouting community for over-drafting the 197 lbs. running back from East Carolina at 24^th overall in the 2008 draft. Boy were they wrong. Johnson narrowly missed-out on NFL Rookie of the Year honors to Falcon’s QB Matt Ryan after posting 10 total scores and 1,500 all-purpose yards. Look for Johnson to carry the ROY “snub” chip on his shoulders and for a repeat performance in Nashville.

5. Matt Forte (Age: 23)-2008 Stats-1,238 Rushing Yards, 8 TD, 3.9 Avg., 1 TO’s, 477 Receiving Yards, 4 TD

Forte is another runner from the 2008 draft class who surprised most everyone with a breakout campaign in Chicago. Drafted in the 2^nd round, Forte profiled as a fast— but not quick—back with nice blocking and receiving skills. 12 scores into his career Forte appears the “real deal” and with Jay Cutler under center should benefit from some additional catches, but the true value will be keeping LB’s and Safeties honest at the point of attack.

6. D’Angelo Williams (Age: 26)-2008 Stats-1,515 Rushing Yards, 18 TD, 5.5 Avg., 0 TO’s, 121 Receiving Yards, 2 TD

Bam! Williams owners were blessed with incredible good fortune as the RBBC converted Williams into a scoring machine. With a total of 20 TD’s and nearly 1,700 all-purpose yards D’Angelo could be depended on for nearly two TD’s a game. Look for some regression at the age of 26, with some additional touches going to Jonathan Stewart.

7. Brian Westbrook (Age: 29)-2008 Stats-936 Rushing Yards, 9 TD, 4.0 Avg., 1 TO’s, 402 Receiving Yards, 5 TD

I’m a Giants fan, and Westbrook scares the hell out of me. Even with off-season ankle surgery threatening his availability on opening day, Westbrook is good for 15 scores and 1,500 all-purpose yards. The Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy to spell the aging back, which should bode well for Westbrook and his fantasy football owners.

8. Steve Slaton (Age: 23)-2008 Stats-1,282 Rushing Yards, 9 TD, 4.8 Avg., 2 TO’s, 377 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Slaton was yet another rookie runner from the 2008 class to make an impact last season. Drafted in the 3^rd round out of West Virginia, Slaton won the starting job out of camp and proceeded to tear up opposing defenses with his speed, ability to miss tackles and catch within space, providing a much needed balance between he and Andre Johnson. Look for great strides this season from Slaton, as the Texans appear poised for a run.

9. Clinton Portis (Age: 27)-2008 Stats-1,487 Rushing Yards, 9 TD, 4.3 Avg., 3 TO’s, 218 Receiving Yards, 0 TD

Portis has never equaled his monster years behind Mike Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme in Denver, but last season served as a bit of a renaissance for the Hurricane in his 7^th NFL season. Portis cut down on his turnovers from 2007 and managed to crack the 1,400 yard mark for the first time since 2005. At 27-years old Portis may yet have two or three good seasons left as a top runner in this league.

10. Brandon Jacobs (Age: 27)-2008 Stats-1,089 Rushing Yards, 15 TD, 5.0 Avg., 1 TO’s, 36 Receiving Yards, 0 TD

Jacobs’ owners loved his TD totals, but were left holding the bag when it came to total yardage. Now that Derrick Ward has left for Tampa Bay, Jacobs will likely be splitting snaps with Ahmed Bradshaw. If the Giants are able to developing mid-to-long range vertical game, Jacobs is poised for another solid season.

Honorable Mention

Steven Jackson (Age: 25)- 2008 Stats-1,042 Rushing Yards, 7 TD, 4.1 Avg., 3 TO’s, 379 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

I had initially left Steven Jackson off this list, but our Dynasty Football guru Joe Buccellato pointed out that Jackson is only 25 years old, and could be re-invigorated by new head coach Steve Spagnuolo. My take is that outside of 2006 when Jackson had a total of 16 TD’s and 2,300+ all-purpose yards, he has been a major disappointment to fantasy football owners who drafted him with more than 1,000 yards in mind. This season will tell who was right, and who was wrong.

LaDainian Tomlinson (Age: 30)-2008 Stats-1,110 Rushing Yards, 10 TD, 3.8 Avg., 0 TO’s, 426 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

LT will be remembered fondly in the fantasy football hall of fame, along with top pass catching touchdown machines Priest Holmes and Marshall Faulk. Sadly, as LT limps into his 8^th NFL season, fantasy owners are trying to handicap whether LT has one good run left in him for the Chargers. Last year LT’s rushing average was his lowest since his rookie year in 2001, with an offensive line that doesn’t appear to have improved. The departure of Lorenzo Neal last season clearly had an impact on LT’s ability to get pass the line…it will be interesting to see what he’s got left in the tank in 2009.

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