Keeper League GM 2009 National League Division Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
After 163 game regular season October playoff baseball is finally here.
Though we traditionally keep to Fantasy Baseball/Football around these parts, we’d like to offer some commentary on the upcoming series’.
As we examine the Cardinals/Dodgers match-up, the obvious area of focus will be on the the Cardinals’  starting pitching.
Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter are as formidable a duo as any in baseball, with both will likely finishing in the top 3 for the 2009 NL Cy Young Award. Â Rounding out the rotation are the Dave Duncan-ized Joel Pineiro and Kyle Loshe, with John Smoltz serving in some extended relief capacity.
Joe Torre’s Dodgers, who scorched the National League over the first 80+ games have fallen back to Earth—largely on the weakness of their own starting pitching. Â Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw appear to have hit the proverbial “wall”, while solid contributors like Randy Wolf, Rangers’ re-tread Vincente Padilla, and deadline acquisition Jon Garland will be asked to match zeros against the Cardinals’ superior pitching if they’re expected to win the series.
While the Cards’ bullpen leaves much to be desired, beyond the solid middling starter turned closer in Ryan Franklin, they do have Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa the best pitching coach/tactician combination in the major leagues to exploit match-ups.
If Joe Torre is able to get to the later innings with a lead, he will clearly have the advantage in middle and late relief with lefty George Sherrill and closer Jonathon Broxton at the back end of his bullpen.
The Cardinal offense clearly revolves around Albert Pujols. Â Overall his numbers are just incredible, but the stat that really jumps out to me is his .446 OBP. The guy is simply always on base.
If Joe Torre had the horses, he might be able to exploit a heavy righthanded hitting lineup. (I don’t think he does) Outside of Matt Holliday and Pujols they don’t hit lefthanders well. (Last in NL with a .674 OPS vs. Lefties)
The Cards also have the defensive edge starting with the games’ best defensive catcher by a wide margin in Yadier Molina. A .585 stolen base success percentage against Molina should keep Juan Pierre, and Matt Kemp grounded for the series.
While the Dodgers’ have the second-best right handed hitter in the league in Manny Ramirez, with upstarts Andre Ethier and Kemp to round out a lineup that can pack a punch, they “limped” into the playoffs, not clinching the West until last Saturday night.
I do believe the Dodgers have a chance in this series but it will have to be with solid contributions from their starters, timely hitting, and a lights out bullpen who will be asked to shorten games.
It will also require youngsters’ Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley to pitch to their talent and maintain poise. Keeper League GM readers won’t be fooled by Kershaw’s 9-8 record with righties hitting just .211 against him to pad his sparkling 2.89 ERA. One area where the Dodgers have a distinct advantage which can’t be understated is postseason experience and bench depth.
Sitting on the bench, Jim Thome, Juan Pierre, Ronnie Belliard, Brad Ausmus and starting pitcher Garland are all veterans of the postseason pressure cooker.
All in all the Dodgers will keep it interesting but I can’t see them beating the combination of Wainwright and Carpenter.
Pitching and defense win championships. The pick here is the Cardinals.
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[...] Keeper League GM 2009 National League Division Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles D… [...]
[...] like to offer some commentary on the upcoming series’.  In case you missed our commentary on the Cardinals/Dodgers series or Rockies/Phillies series, click on the match-up to be [...]