Posted by Phil Brody April 5, 2009

I watch a lot of baseball and I play a lot of fantasy baseball.

In fantasy baseball, you can cite stats all day long, but watching the “true game” translates those numbers into emotion and emotion leads to gut feelings. Not all gut feelings pan out, but when they do, well, you look like the smartest guy in your league. Throughout the season, and hopefully for many seasons to come, I’ll be issuing my thoughts from “Inside the Dugout”

(Drumroll please….) These are ten observations and gut feelings, what I see From The Dugout-Opening Day 2009
 

Ryan’s Hope

I love Ryan Spilborghs and have loved him the last two seasons. I own or have owned him in almost every league I play in and am so stoked to see what he finally does with full-time at bats. Having said that, I cringed when the Rockies awarded Dexter Fowler a spot on their 25-man roster. This is the kind of move that has been keeping “Spils” down for the last few years. I know Fowler is the future, but “Spils” is the now — and when I say now, I mean a perfect player to own for the win-now fantasy baseball team. Monitor the situation in Colorado, but if Ryan gets the at-bats, he will rake. This is a true story.  

 

MLB Network

I am a huge fan of the MLB Network. Given what ESPN has become (i.e. 24hr ads for NYY & BOS), I welcomed this new network with open arms. I think we all did. HOWEVER, I do have some criticism. The camaraderie during MLB Tonight is obvious, but I am getting so tired of watching five minutes of former players laughing like little kids about inside jokes I’d never understand. I’m talking to you Sean Casey. Sure, it beats Baseball Tonight’s inane shouting matches, but rule number one in TV is, don’t make each other laugh, make ME laugh.   

Wait…Before We Change Channels

It would also be nice to see some real analysis and real criticism. Guys, not everyone is “in line for a bounce-back season.” I know these are your friends you are discussing, but this is the MLB Network. Show some balls and tell it like it is or I’ll start fast-forwarding through the commentary. Way it is.  

Ben There, Do That

Shin-Soo Choo is getting lots of attention in fantasy leagues this year, and deservedly so, but why is Ben Francisco getting ignored? He has an opportunity to shine this year and while LaPorta does loom, the Indians have always been slow to promote. They are also a franchise that wheels and deals. In other words, if Francisco hits he either stays in the line-up or gets packaged to bring another arm to the shores of Lake Erie. I believe he’ll hit, run, score and be factor in fantasy in 2009. So will Choo, but not many are talking about Ben and that’s what matters most.     

 

 

 

The AL Beast

A lot has been written about the AL East this pre-season, however I think most have gotten the predictions wrong. I think the Red Sox win the division, Tampa Bay gets the Wild Card and the Yankees don’t make the playoffs. Before you send the hate mail, all three do win 95+ games. Not a bad season for any of those teams…unless, of course, you reside in the Big Apple. Send the hate emails to wayitis@sukit.com 

There Has Never Been A More Wretched Hive Of Value & Volatility

Re-draft leagues preach “don’t pay for saves’” for good reason, however this is Keeper League GM, so we sing a much different tune. In most formats, there is no greater value at a more unpredictable position than there is annually at closer. 2008 was the Poster Child for that and in 2009 we might need a bigger poster. Personally, I like to stock up on closers and closer candidates, and there is no greater use of the waiver wire than grabbing both. Obviously 16-team and 20-team leagues can leave the cupboards bare, but a few darkhorse candidates I like for saves include: Jared Burton, Jeff Niemann, Logan Kensing and Mitch Stetter. Some more obvious ones include: Jensen Lewis, Santiago Casilla, Joe Nelson and Chad Cordero. 

Been Bugging Me

One of the most inevitable things in baseball that no one is discussing is the fact that Joba looks like he’s headed back to the bullpen. C’mon, am I the only one that sees this? This fact actually bums me out because I spent time this off-season speculating and investing in potential heirs to Mariano’s throne. Then one day I slapped my forehead and said, “duh.”  Do the math. If you’re bad at math, just trust me. It all adds up. Take into account the new hired guns on the mound, the possibility that more are on the way (Bedard anyone?) and the fact that Hughes and Kennedy are looming. The end result points Joba right toward the Yankee pen for years to come, maybe as soon at this season.  

Early Retirement Comes To The MLB

Funny how something that we are so familiar with in our work worlds is so alien to major league baseball players. I think it began with Kenny Lofton almost a year ago, but early retirement is becoming a common thing in the MLB. I’m actually surprised at some of the guys that did find work, Garrett Anderson for one. He should be the Poster Child for this newfound reality. Having said that, watch, he’ll have a monster season. On second thought, not so much. After all, he is almost 59. 

The Baker Does In

Scott Baker’s 6.85 ERA this spring does not worry me. The nine HRs he gave up in spring training does not worry me. Baker being placed on the 15-day DL for a sore shoulder does not worry me. However, the combination of all of these facts worries the hell out of me and it should worry you if you own him. Yes, he was primed for a stellar season, but this is not the way stellar seasons usually start. 

 

 

Time Will Tell If I Am Right

The Internet killed all semblance of a sleeper in fantasy baseball. This is a true story. However, every now and then a few players somehow fall through the cracks. This year, for me, that player is Dallas Braden. I am in six different keeper leagues — two 20-team and four 16-team leagues — and I got Braden in five of my drafts this year. In the one I didn’t, he was already on someone’s roster before the draft. Two weeks after the last draft ended, Braden was named the A’s Opening Day starter due to injuries in that rotation. Obviously, I did not take Braden because of his place in the rotation (I actually think it hurts his value being a #1). I took him because he had a nice K-rate in the minors (9.9 in 117 innings in AAA) and I believe he has the potential for a breakout season. To get him in every league makes me scratch my head. These are deep leagues we’re talking about and I snagged him at varying places in each draft. In other words, we got a bonafide sleeper on our hands! Who knows, maybe he’ll suck, but my gut says otherwise — and I got a pretty outstanding gut. 

Fantasy League Quote

“If you look up and down your line-up and don’t see the hole in it, you are the hole.” 

Who You Should Be Watching This Week

Brett Gardner, Ian Stewart, Franklin Gutierrez, Ryan Spilborghs

Chris Carpenter, Chris Ray, Todd Helton, Travis Hafner

James McDonald, Jason Hammel, Dallas Braden, Scott Lewis

Jason Motte, BJ Ryan, Huston Street, Kevin Gregg

 

Phil Brody resides in Los Angeles, California. He works in the television industry as a writer and director. In his spare time, he devours everything baseball. He can be reached at: philbrody@earthlink.net

Share this Post: