One thing that often surprises me is the belief that 1B is a deep position—relatively speaking it is, but to truly secure an elite masher you need to be prepared to pounce early or identify your pillar and work a deal.  This year’s list reveals movement as youth begins to knock off some talented veterans, including career 967 OPS’er Lance Berkman…and with some of the talent in the minor leagues, next year’s list will look different still.

1. Albert Pujols (Age:30)-2009 Stats.- .327 Avg, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, .442 OBP, .658 SLG, 1.10 OPS

Pujols is one of the rare players who transcends eras.  There’s really not much more that needs to be said about him except he is the model of consistency.  The one thing to note is that his .299 BABIP was 18 points off his career average of .317, but he has been remarkably healthy to this point, so be careful throwing too many eggs into that one basket.

2. Miguel Cabrera (Age: 27) 2009 Stats-.325 Avg, 34 HR, 103 RBI, 6 SB, .395 OBP, .546 SLG, 942 OPS

The prodigal hitter came to blows with his demons late last season as his issues with alcohol and his weight cast shadows over the 27-year old phenom entering the 2010 season.  While it is the most over used cliché heading into Spring Training, Cabrera appears to have shed excess baggage, both in pounds and with the bottle.  If he were to dedicate himself to his craft he could push Pujols as the top keeper at 1B next season.

3. Prince Fielder (Age: 26) 2009 Stats-.299 Avg, 46 HR, 141 RBI, 2 SB, .411 OBP, .602 SLG, 1.01 OPS

The Prince of Milwaukee continues to deliver for the Crew, carrying a pitcher-less ballclub with the help of Ryan Braun, and surprising rookie Casey McGehee.    Entering his Age-26 year, Fielder should be entering his prime, which is scary considering he has a career 931 OPS, averaging 38 HR’s over his first five seasons.  PECOTA sees a slight regression of his 2009 numbers, but I don’t buy it.  I expect Prince to break the 50-HR barrier this year and push towards his first MVP award.

4. Mark Teixeira (Age: 30)-2009 Stats-.292 Avg, 39 HR, 122 RBI, 2 SB, .383 OBP, .564 SLG, 948 OPS

Teixeira came to New York with incredible expectations and off to slow start (as is his M.O.) in New York started to press.  Come May 16^th when Tex went 4 for 4 with a BB, HR and 4 RBI’s and he was off to the MVP race, where he finished 2^nd behind Joe Mauer.  PECOTA and others see more of the same for the Yanks’ first baseman.  However, looking forward over the next two years, if you are able to acquire an up-and comer at 1B, look to sell high (and command a big premium) on Teixeira while he is still among the elite at his position.

5. Adrian Gonzalez (Age: 28) 2009 Stats-.277 Avg, 40 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .407 OBP, .550 SLG, 958 OPS

Well…good news/bad news.  The Padres have not yet traded Gonzalez, and this year’s offense could be even worse than last year’s.  However, given the incredible interest, he should be moved before the trading deadline to the Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, or Angels, all of whom would represent an upgrade (well…maybe not the Mets) over his current environment.  Gonzalez was a late bloomer, but will likely be among the top 3 at the position heading into 2011.

6. Ryan Howard (Age: 30) 2009 Stats-.279 Avg, 45 HR, 141 RBI, 8 SB, .359 OBP, .571 SLG, 931 OPS

I wonder whether Howard’s World Series struggles last season will have a carry-over into the regular season.  Clearly he is among the top sluggers in baseball today, but while he is often compared with Prince Fielder, he’s nearly 5 years his elder.  The Phillies have so much offensive talent that his RBI numbers could conceivably elevate (scary huh?), but PECOTA is not quite as bullish, showing a regression in power and runs driven in.  Like Teixeira, look to sell Howard high if you have a younger alternative, but if given the opportunity to keep one, I would let Howard walk before Tex.

7. Kendry Morales (Age: 27) 2009 Stats-.305 Avg, 34 HR, 108 RBI, 3 SB, .355 OBP, .568 SLG, 924 OPS

Kendry Morales finally lived up to his prospect-hype, filling in for the departed Mark Teixeira.  For the money the Angels didn’t miss a beat.  Most projections have Morales suffering a slight regression on last year’s numbers due in some part to his high BABIP in 2009, but either way entering his Age-27 season and a likely line of .290/28/90 ensures Morales is among the top First Basemen in baseball.

8. Joey Votto (Age: 26) 2009 Stats-.322 Avg, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, .413 OBP, .567 SLG, 958 OPS

Last year was a tough one for Joey Votto.  After suffering from depression related to the death of his father in mid-season, he rebounded in late summer to put up some very respectable numbers.  Given his age and incredible bat speed, Votto is the most likely to jump to the top of this list heading into the 2011 season.

9. Kevin Youkilis (Age: 30) 2009 Stats-.305 Avg, 27 HR, 94 RBI, 7 SB, .413 OBP, .547 SLG, 961 OPS

Last season Youkilis was on our Top Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Third Basemen list, and while he will split duties at the hot corner with Adrian Beltre, and 1B with Victor Martinez, he will carry the AB’s to maintain his leadership at First Base.  Youkilis is one of those players you love if he’s on your team, and hate when he’s competing against you.  He’s a grinder whose skills should improve with age.  If you’re looking for additional eligibility and consistency, you can bet on Youkilis over the next few years.

10. Justin Morneau (Age: 28) 2009 Stats-.273 Avg, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 1 SB, .362 OBP, .515 SLG, 878 OPS

Morneau is the type of player the BBWAA loves—a run producer.  But while I don’t love him, considering he missed the last 16 games of the regular season due to back problems, his last season numbers were pretty solid.  The question will be whether the chilly confines of new Target Field will impact his swing and his balky back early and late in the season.  The Twins acquisition of Orlando Hudson to join Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer and Justin Kubel should present plenty of opportunities to rack up RBI’s for the Canadian slugger.

While the Fantasy Baseball season doesn’t begin for most until next month, it seemed like an awfully long time to wait to begin scouting the field for the 2010 campaign.

As we wrote last year in our 2009 Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Keepers, Catcher is an interesting position. It is either way overvalued, or seriously undervalued depending on the league, so feel free to use this as your guide when determining the time to select (or keep) a Top Catcher.

Last season was a poor one for the position overall, outside of MVP Joe Mauer, a second half resurgence by last year’s top rated backstop Brian McCann and a return to form by Victor Martinez, the field disappointed from top to bottom.   That being said, here are our Top 10 2010 Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Catchers.

1. Joe Mauer: Age: 27: 2009 Stats: .365 Avg, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .443 OBP, .587 SLG, 1.030 OPS

Last season began with serious questions for both the Twins and Minnesota’s favorite son, as off-season kidney surgery complications robbed Mauer of spring training and the first month of the regular season.   However, it didn’t take long for him to set the tone for the season, as he clubbed his first home run in his first at-bat of 2009.  Mauer is the class of the position, but given the uncertainty of the friendly confines of the Twins’ new home, Target Field, the blustery conditions in Minneapolis may get him off to a slow start.  Keeper League GM’s will be very interested as ongoing negotiations for a long-term agreement with the Twins continue, while the Yankees and Red Sox wait for the opportunity to lock down perhaps the best hitting catcher in history.

2. Brian McCann: Age: 26: 2009 Stats: .281 Avg, 21 HR, 94 RBI, 4 SB, .349 OBP, .486 SLG, 834 OPS

McCann, last season’s Top Fantasy Baseball Keeper at Catcher had off the field medical complications of his own to deal with.  A botched laser eye procedure created discomfort that led to specialized contacts in 2009 and a second procedure to correct the issue this off-season. Under the circumstances McCann performed admirably, though with some regression off his 2008 breakout campaign.  He managed to stay on the field despite his vision related issues, and was easily the second best at the position.  His batting average drops for those in Roto can be directly attributed to a drop in walks and increase in strikeouts (64 in 2008 to 83 in 2009)—but given the aforementioned complications, it could just easily be an anomaly.  Consensus among most industry forecasts has McCann returning to his 2008 form at .290AVG/22 HR/96 RBI.

3. Matt Wieters: Age: 24: 2009 Stats: .288 Avg, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 0 SB, .340 OBP, .412 SLG, 753 OPS

Wieters was easily the most hyped position player in recent memory heading into last season.  Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA had his numbers off the charts—and anything short of a triple crown in his rookie campaign disappointed many a traditional fantasy baseball GM.  But…if you’re a Keeper League GM and you own him, you are in great shape.  In 96 games last season the switch hitting backstop hit 9 HR’s while adjusting to major league pitching.  His K/BB Ratio was 3.9, which would be solid were he a starter, but as a rookie slugger it hurt his overall numbers.  Most analysts agree that he will be .290-.295, 15-20 HR, and 75-90 RBI’s in 2010.  Considering his upside, he’s the most valuable Keeper not named Joe Mauer—but for those playing for 2010, McCann just nudged him out.

4. Victor Martinez: Age: 32: 2009 Stats: .303 Avg, 23 HR, 108 RBI, 1 SB, .381 OBP, .480 SLG, 861 OPS

Martinez was #10 on our list last season, coming off a terrible 2008 with the Tribe.  Given his age and his likely move to 1B/DH to make room for then back-up Kelly Shoppach, his success in ‘09 was far from guaranteed.  Heading into 2010, off a renaissance campaign, Martinez is poised to benefit from the departure of Jason Bay in Boston, allowing he and his Fantasy GM’s to benefit from additional “ducks on the pond” hitting behind Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia.  Balancing the needs of today vs. the needs of tomorrow is clearly one of the challenges of a Keeper League GM, but given the likely benefit in 2010, Martinez is clearly among the Top 5 Fantasy Catchers in the game.

5. Miguel Montero: Age: 27: 2009 Stats : .294 Avg, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 1 SB, .355 OBP, .478 SLG, 832 OPS

Montero, a much hyped prospect in the Diamondback system over the last several years, was finally given the opportunity when Chris Snyder went down early in the season in ‘09.  Montero didn’t disappoint, posting a 900 OPS during the 2^nd half of 2009.  Entering his age-27 year in 2010, Montero should be entering his prime and is poised to post a .280 AVG/20 HR/70 RBI campaign should he retain the starting job in 2010.  Keep an eye on the Snyder/Montero battle during Spring Training, and expect a trade of the latter if the former wins out on Opening Day.

6. Geovany Soto: Age: 27: 2009 Stats: .218 Avg, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 1 SB, .321 OBP, .381 SLG, 702 OPS

What an ugly season for Soto and the Cubs.  After an incredible rookie campaign, Soto dropped off the map in 2009, posting an abysmal .218 AVG, attributed in part to an incredible drop in BABIP (.337 in 2008 to .251 in 2009), but all in all nauseating for those who had high expectations heading into 2009.  For me, it’s all about value when analyzing a player.  This is a good opportunity to buy low on a player due for a rebound in 2010.  Look for a 50-60 point boost in his average and likely a 100% improvement in his HR totals over 2009, making his final tally in 2010, .270 AVG/ 20 HR/70 RBI—not bad given the relative competition.

7. Jorge Posada: Age: 39: 2009 Stats: .285 Avg, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 1 SB, .363 OBP, .522 SLG, 885 OPS

If Posada weren’t nearly eligible for AARP membership, he would be sitting easily at #5 on this list.  But, this is a Keeper list and therefore age plays a huge part in evaluating talent.  Since he turned 37, Posada’s reputation as a relatively healthy soldier for fantasy baseball GM’s has taken a beating.  After averaging roughly 140 games per season since taking over the full-time catcher role in 2000, Posada has spent a significant period of time on the disabled list over the last two seasons.   Most analysts see last season as the high watermark remaining in Posada’s career—which I think most Fantasy GM’s would take.  Watch for a regression beginning next season—he’s perfect as a one year rental, or as a trade pawn to return a major league ready prospect at the deadline.

8. Kurt Suzuki: Age: 27: 2009 Stats  .274 Avg, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 8 SB, .313 OBP, .421 SLG, 734 OPS

Suzuki was a saving grace for many Fantasy GM’s last season considering the performance of the catcher position overall.  With little expectation, Suzuki managed to be among the top 10 in most major offensive categories among catchers.  While he won’t “wow” you, his likely .280 AVG/15 HR/75 RBI/5 SB is a solid holdover if you are grooming the position for one of the many upcoming backstops.

9. Buster Posey: Age: 23: 2009 Stats (AAA) :. 321 Avg, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .391 OBP, .511 SLG,  902 OPS

Some people may say, “what about Doumit or Iannetta or Napoli?”.  To me, I’d much rather have Buster Posey than any of them, even though he only has 17 MLB AB’s.  Truthfully, the same can be said for the next catcher on our list.  Posey profiles as a poor man’s Joe Mauer, projecting at .300 AVG/15 HR/70 RBI once he wins the full-time role in San Francisco.  Benjie Molina has returned for the 2010 season, and can serve as a great “handcuff” to use a fantasy football term, but Posey is the real-deal and should be acquired if available in your league.  Take a look at our Top Prospects on the Farm feature on Buster Posey last season for a more advanced profile.

10. Carlos Santana: Age: 24: 2009 Stats (AA) :. 290 Avg, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 2 SB, .413 OBP, .530 SLG,  943 OPS

Santana was stolen from the Los Angeles Dodgers at the deadline in 2008, and is among the top prospects in baseball heading into 2010.  Given the dearth of talent in Cleveland to begin the season, Indians’ GM Mark Shapiro may elect to keep Santana on the farm for a bit longer.  However, Santana profiles as a power hitting, switch hitting catcher in the mold of Victor Martinez (but with better receiving skills).  Lou Marson, the catcher the Indians received in the Cliff Lee deal, may begin the season as the starter, but I suspect that Santana will be up with the big club sometime in May to begin what should be a long and successful major league career.

Next up….Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Keepers: First Base

Before I get started on the 2010 season I want to give a “shout out” to Lenny Melnick, my friend and colleague, who often delivers gut feelings at Fantasypros911. I always find them compelling and while they are merely hunches, loosely based on numbers and analysis, it’s the gut that compels me.

Now, I have a pretty outstanding gut (no doubt advanced by years of boozing with the Hollywood crowd), so here are my two cents, including gut feelings I have for the upcoming fantasy baseball season.

It’s what I see “From the Dugout”.

“We want a pitcher, not a belly-itcher.”

The thing about a Keeper League is you need to predict and project value in players other owners don’t presently covet. Obviously the Greinkes, Wainwrights and Scherzers are tied up in competitive dynasty leagues, so it’s important to target guys rebounding from lousy seasons or players who are finally taking the mound as part of some team’s rotation. A favorite strategy of mine is to acquire these guys and if/when they thrive to any minor degree, I trade them. Last year a favorite target was Dallas Braden — he’s not a stud, but he brought me some very nice players in return when I pawned him off on owners in need of an arm. This year, a few pitchers I have my eye on include: Tim Stauffer, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez, Jonathan Sanchez, and Tom Gorzelanny. And call me crazy, but Chien-Ming Wang is so damn cheap right now, I have to include him.

“You’re all clear, kid, now let’s NOT blow this thing and go home!”

Closers are a most volatile position in fantasy and can often be the most valuable if you can predict who might slide into that role prior to or during the season. Some bullpen guys I currently have my eye on include: Jason Frasor (TOR), Chris Perez & Tony Sipp (CLE), Edward Mujica & Luke Gregerson (SD), and Jason Motte (STL).

“Hey, batta batta! Schwing!”

A few position players I like in 2010 who might be available in your Keeper League include: J.R. Towles, Jake Fox, Luis Valbuena, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Matt Diaz, Juan Rivera, Michael Brantley. I also would take a flyer on Andy Marte — yep, that’s right, Andy Marte.

There’s Two Types Of Fantasy

Just to change things up, here are a few fantasy girls flying under the radar right now. Get ‘em ‘cause they’re hot: Odette Yustman starred in “Cloverfield” and “The Unborn” — she’s a smart man’s Megan Fox. The chick from “Chuck” has a crazy last name — Yvonne Strahovski — but she’s a major reason I still watch that show.  I don’t want to get anyone in trouble at home with their Mrs.or at work with the boss, but  the combination of “Alice Eve” and “Crossing Over” in a search engine can produce a pretty convincing  argument the world needs to see more of this beauty. Honorable Mentions: Doutzen Kroes, Eva Amurri,  & Candice Swanepoel.

Super + Star + Domination = SuperStarDom

Here are a few guys I believe might take that leap into SuperStarDom, at least from a fantasy perspective. In other words, these are guys that just might help you win your league: Howie Kendrick, Ian Stewart, BJ Upton, Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Kevin Slowey, Max Scherzer, and Wade Davis.

“I’ll give you my Gonzalez for your Butler.”

Great thing about Keeper Leagues is all the trading. Some potentially gettable trade targets I like for 2010 include: Geovany Soto, Billy Butler, Howie Kendrick, Alexei Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Shin-Shoo Choo, Denard Span, Franklin Gutierrez, Ricky Nolasco, Wandy Rodriguez, Francisco Liriano, Mike Gonzalez and Takashi Saito.  I also have to go out on a limb and say I like Chris Davis or at least the price of him at this point in time.

Fantasy League Quote

“I have come to this league to chew bubble gum and kick ass…and I’m all out of bubble gum!”

Players You Should Be Watching

Scott Sizemore, Jemile Weeks, Adam Rosales

Eric Hosmer, Bret Wallace, Josh Bell

Wade Davis, James McDonald, Homer Bailey

Scott Elbert, Tony Sipp, Daniel Bard

Phil Brody resides in Los Angeles, California. He works in the television industry as a writer and director. In his spare time, he devours everything baseball. He can be reached at: philbrody@earthlink.net

If you are reading this and don’t subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, you’re doing yourself a disservice.  Will Carroll, Kevin Goldstein and the rest of crew at BP are simply the best purveyors of baseball information in the industry.

That being said, today they released an updated version of their PECOTA projection report that brought with it some surprising prophecies as we try and handicap the 2010 season.

Home Runs

While it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the top 3 HR projected home run hitters in 2010 are Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Alex Rodriguez according to PECOTA, the few who did surprise me included Rangers’ Chris Davis, projected to hit 31 HR’s in a full-time role in Arlington, Mike Napoli, slated for 28 bombs as the Angels main battery-mate in Anaheim, and JJ Hardy returning to his 2007-08 form with 25 Home runs in the chilly confines of Target Field.   Other surprising names included Matt LaPorta (24 HR), Nolan Reimold (25 HR), and David Wright returning to his former glory (26 HR) at Citifield.

Saves

Saves are one of the most overvalued categories in all of fantasy sports.  Whether you play in a Roto or PPA format, in order for relievers to have any value, they had better win or collect a ton of saves.  However, each season several “dark horses” emerge enabling the savvy Fantasy GM to pounce, rather than waste a valuable pick or worse spend valuable cash on a “lesser” closer…one who may not even have a role in June or July.   In that vein PECOTA offers some help using their algorithmic crystal ball.   The Top 3 Closers according to PECOTA in total saves are Joakim Soria (42 Saves?), Jose Valverde (39 Saves) and Bobby Jenks (37 Saves).   PECOTA also foresees Chris Perez splittings save opportunities with Kerry Wood in Cleveland, and Billy Wagner sharing duties in Atlanta with Takashi Saito (14 Saves a piece).  PECOTA also projects Jeremy Accardo as the closer in Toronto.

While PECOTA has proved to be a valuable tool in projecting the likely outcome of the upcoming season, one thing is for sure…there will definitely be many more surprises as we head towards spring training.

Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Keepers coming soon…

(Courtesy: Icon Sports Media)

Well…as you read in our 10 Players to Watch in 2010 last week, Vladimir Guerrero presented several questions for Keeper League GM’s heading into the 2010 season, not the least of which was where he would land.

Last night Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels provided closure to one matter—and with it some greater clarity of what this upcoming season holds for the “Impaler”.

Coming off an injury plagued season where he was limited to only two games in the OF, Guerrero now has the full-time DH role in the bandbox known as the Ballpark at Arlington on a 1 year deal.

This should bode well for his owners, as he joins the #2 highest Homerun/Flyball Ratio ballpark in 2009 (behind the new Yankees Stadium) according to Fangraphs.com.

Clearly Guerrero’s best days are behind him…but especially in Keeper Leagues where his value has drastically diminished, a one or two year flyer could pay major dividends.  Perfect opportunity for a Buy-Low swap—assuming you have the room for a full-time DH.

TSN

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Still no word on the severity of Wes Welker’s knee injury. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was the most significant IDP injury, as he was carted off the field early in the game. DeAngelo Williams sat again, and Jonathan Stewart continues to shine despite leaving early after re-aggravating his Achilles. Antrolle Rolle, Dwight Freeney, Laurence Maroney, Darren Sharper, Eric Weddle, and Vincent Jackson were all inactive in their meaningless games. Let’s take a look at all of the key NFL Week 17 injuries (courtesy of cbs; organized by keeperleaguegm.com):

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