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We begin the Third Season Production series with everyone’s favorite, the wide receivers. Fantasy folks used to assume the third season is the magical year for WR’s to bust out. Note the word “assume”. If you’re a stat freak like me, you’ve accepted those days are over. No, I don’t mean players aren’t getting better in their third season… the stats say the increase in production has shrunk due to strong rookie performances.

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Click the link below to view the third season WR Excel report.

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   >>> third season WR production <<<

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Percentages for a 16 team league, starting 2.5 WRs

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Third Season Production, 2009: 35 Wide Receivers

11% chance of owning a starter (4 players)

    -  6% chance of owning a WR#1 (2 players)

    -  6% chance of owning a WR#2/3 (2 players)

14% chance of owning a backup (5 players)

0% chance of minimal contribution in third season (0 players)

74% chance of no contribution in third season (26 players)

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Third Season Production, 2006 – 2009: 127

13% chance of owning a starter (17 players)

    -  6% chance of owning a WR#1 (8 players)

    -  7% chance of owning a WR#2/3 (9 players)

15% chance of owning a backup (19 players)

3% chance of minimal contribution in third season (4 players)

69% chance of no contribution in third season (87 players)

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Players drafted in the first round, 2006 – 2009: 20

40% chance of owning a starter (8 players)

    -  20% chance of owning a WR#1 (4 players)

    -  20% chance of owning a WR#2/3 (4 players)

25% chance of owning a backup (5 players)

15% chance of minimal contribution in third season (3 players)

20% chance of no contribution in third season (4 players)

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Players drafted in the second or third rounds, 2006 – 2009:  34

18% chance of owning a starter (6 players)

    -  9% chance of owning a WR#1 (3 players)

    -  9% chance of owning a WR#2/3 (3 players)

15% chance of owning a backup (5 players)

3% chance of minimal contribution in third season (1 player)

65% chance of no contribution in third season (22 players)

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Players drafted after the third round, 2006 – 2009: 73

4% chance of owning a starter (3 players)

    -  1% chance of owning a WR#1 (1 player)

    -  3% chance of owning a WR#2/3 (2 players)

12% chance of owning a backup (9 players)

0% chance of minimal contribution in third season (0 players)

84% chance of no contribution in third season (61 players)

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2009 rookies performed better than 2009 3rd season WR’s. Five of the six rookie first round draft picks (Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt) were serviceable, and outperformed the 3rd season first rounders (Calvin Johnson, Ginn, Bowe, Meachem, Davis, Gonzalez). After the first round, common sense prevailed and the third season guys were better. However, the “rosterable” difference over the past four seasons was only 9%. Second round picks Steve Smith (NYG) and Sidney Rice rocketed up the receiver rankings with dominant seasons.

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Notable third season wide receivers for 2010 (round drafted):

Donnie Avery (2), Devin Thomas (2), Jordy Nelson (2), James Hardy (2), Eddie Royal (2), Jerome Simpson (2), DeSean Jackson (2), Malcolm Kelly (2), Limas Sweed (2), Dexter Jackson (2), Earl Bennett (3), Early Doucet (3), Harry Douglas (3), Mario Manningham (3), Andre Caldwell (3), Will Franklin (4), Marcus Smith (4), Arman Shields (4), Lavelle Hawkins (4), Keenan Burton (4), Kenneth Moore (5), Matt Slater (5), Marcus Henry (6), Josh Morgan (6), Kevin Robinson (6), Paul Hubbard (6), Jaymar Johnson (6), Pierre Garcon (6), Justin Harper (7), Brett Swain (7), Steve Johnson (7), Chaz Schilens (7), Adrian Arrington (7), Mario Urrutia (7), Marcus Monk (7)

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Click link for individual rookie report, which inlcudes positional graph, four-year Excel report, and 2010 drafted rookies:

Fantasy Football Rookie QB Production

Fantasy Football Rookie RB Production

Fantasy Football Rookie WR Production

Fantasy Football Rookie TE Production

Fantasy Football Rookie DL Production

Fantasy Football Rookie LB Production

Fantasy Football Rookie DB Production

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