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“Voluntary” camps are in progress. We’re getting some scattered reports on high-profile rookies. We’re also learning about all the disgruntled players refusing to report. Ah, football in June. We’re one step closer to seeing players in pads on the television.

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Click the link below to view the third season DB Excel report.

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   >>> third season DB production <<<

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Percentages for a 16 team league, starting 2 DBs

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Third Season Production, 2009: 51 Defensive Backs

8% chance of owning a starter (4 players)

    -  2% chance of owning a DB#1 (1 player)

    -  6% chance of owning a DB#2 (3 players)

14% chance of owning a backup (7 players)

20% chance of minimal contribution in third season (10 players)

59% chance of no contribution in third season (30 players)

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Third Season Production, 2006 – 2009: 195 Defensive Backs

10% chance of owning a starter (19 players)

    -  4% chance of owning a DB#1 (7 players)

    -  6% chance of owning a DB#2 (12 players)

12% chance of owning a backup (24 players)

    *  Twenty-six of the 43 players worth being on a roster were safeties

19% chance of minimal contribution in third season (37 players)

59% chance of no contribution in third season (115 players)

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Players drafted in the first round, 2006 – 2009: 24

17% chance of owning a starter (4 players)

    -  4% chance of owning a DB#1 (1 player)

    -  13% chance of owning a DB#2 (3 players)

33% chance of owning a backup (8 players)

    *  Five of the 12 players worth being on a roster were safeties

29% chance of minimal contribution in third season (7 players)

21% chance of no contribution in third season (5 players)

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Players drafted in the second or third rounds, 2006 – 2009:  56

14% chance of owning a starter (8 players)

    -  5% chance of owning a DB#1 (3 players)

    -  9% chance of owning a DB#2 (5 players)

16% chance of owning a backup (9 players)

    *  Ten of the 17 players worth being on a roster were safeties

27% chance of minimal contribution in third season (15 players)

43% chance of no contribution in third season (24 players)

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Players drafted after the third round, 2006 – 2009: 115

6% chance of owning a starter (7 players)

    -  3% chance of owning a DB#1 (3 players)

    -  3% chance of owning a DB#2 (4 players)

6% chance of owning a backup (7 players)

    *  Eleven of the 14 players worth being on a roster were safeties

13% chance of minimal contribution in third season (15 players)

75% chance of no contribution in third season (86 players)

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The defensive backs were identical to the tight ends in terms of normality. Every third year category witnessed an increase in production compared to its rookie counterpart. Third year defensive backs in 2009 were highlighted by Dashon Goldson, who was off the radar in most leagues, and Tanard Jackson, who missed the first four games due to suspension. Unpredictability is part of the norm when it comes to DB’s, and why you should absolutely look deeper than just the rookie and third year report. In summary, defensive backs can not be trusted. There are no “safe” fantasy DB’s, as there are typically superb Top 10 seasons followed by drastic dips in production. Cedric Griffin, Jarrad Page, Cortland Finnegan, Chris Harris, Kelvin Hayden, Sean Jones, Gibril Wilson, and Madieu Williams are just a few DB’s who had starter-worthy stats in their third seasons, and have since become waiver wire material. KLGM’s advice is to always wait to the end of your draft to select defensive backs. The position is always deep with yearly rotating talent, most of which can be acquired on waivers.

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Notable third season defensive backs for 2010 (round drafted):

Leodis McKelvin (1), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (1), Aqib Talib (1), Mike Jenkins (1), Antoine Cason (1), Kenny Phillips (1), Tyrell Johnson (2), Patrick Lee (2), Terrence Wheatley (2), Terrell Thomas (2), Brandon Flowers (2), Tracy Porter (2), Reggie Smith (3), Antwaun Molden (3), DaJuan Morgan (3), Tom Zbikowski (3), Thomas DeCoud (3), Charles Godfrey (3), Chevis Jackson (3), Tyvon Branch (4), Dwight Lowery (4), Reggie Corner (4), Quintin Demps (4), Justin King (4), Jack Williams (4), Craig Steltz (4), Justin Tryon (4), Jonathan Wilhite (4), Jack Ikegwuonu (4), Trae Williams (5), Brandon Carr (5), Zackary Bowman (5), Orlando Scandrick (5), Corey Lynch (6), Kareem Moore (6), DeJuan Tribble (6), Ryan Mundy (6), Haruki Nakamura (6), Dominique Barber (6), Caleb Campbell (7), Josh Barrett (7), Cary Williams (7), Chris Horton (7), Kennard Cox (7), Wilrey Fontenot (7)

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View the entire Third Season Production series:

Fantasy Football Third Season TE Production

Fantasy Football Third Season DL Production

Fantasy Football Third Season WR Production

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Click link for individual rookie report, which inlcudes positional graph, four-year Excel report, and 2010 drafted rookies:

Fantasy Football Rookie QB Production

Fantasy Football Rookie RB Production

Fantasy Football Rookie WR Production

Fantasy Football Rookie TE Production

Fantasy Football Rookie DL Production

Fantasy Football Rookie LB Production

Fantasy Football Rookie DB Production

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