Maximizing your players’ draft position or auction price

Posted by Joseph Buccellato July 6, 2009

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Reach: Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT

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I admit this is my most questionable “reach” player to date. And no, it’s not because I’m running out of material – I got a bunch of players in the can. Holmes had a sensational rookie year, totaling 49 catches, 824 yards, two receiving TDs, 436 kickoff yards, 264 punt yards, and one punt TD. As stated numerous times across Keeper League GM, a receiver was deemed too valuable and was removed from kick duties. In 2007, all receiving stats increased: 52 catches, 942 yards, and eight TDs. Just when you think he is ready to explode in his third season, Holmes’ stats flattened: 55 catches, 821 yards, and five TDs. Well at least he was back on the punt team in 2008 with 226 yards. Now when you look at his career stats, it makes you wonder if he’ll experience any growth. His Super Bowl performance is sure to bump him up the rankings a few spots. His age (25) is another factor in his favor. The Steelers are a top-run franchise, so you know they’ll be competitive. The biggest question I ask myself is do I want Holmes to be my fantasy WR#1? His current projection suggests you will need to make him just that if you want to land him. He is being ranked as high as the mid-teens, which makes him a low-end WR#1 in a 16-team league. If I’m desperate for a WR and all my positions are filled, then I’ll take the plunge. However, I’d feel a lot better about my receiver depth if he’s my fantasy WR#2.

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Value: Kurt Warner, QB, AZ

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It took Warner six years and two teams after his 2002 St. Louis season to reclaim his fantasy rhythm. Now that’s it’s back, you shouldn’t let it pass you by. He totaled 4583 yards, 30 TDs, and 21 turnovers in 2008 – and he’s going to have another wonderful season in 2009. Arizona has incredible receiving weapons, a solid offensive coach in Ken Whisenhunt, and what appears to be a bump in the running back game with the addition of rookie Chris “Beanie” Wells. Top-end defensive pressure will always rattle Warner, which will lead to those occasional mega-turnover days. However, Warner version 2008 was able to offset those turnover bonanzas with yards and TDs. In his week four six-turnover game versus the Jets, he threw for 472 yards and two TDs. In the week 13 three-turnover game versus the Eagles, he threw for 235 yards and three TDs. Folks, he’s back, and he’s a huge bargain in Dynasty/Keeper leagues. In my BEEF fantasy league, he was the fifth best QB and seventh best overall player in 2008. In my FFPIL league, he was again the fifth best QB and the sixth best overall player. He currently projects in the low/mid-teens for quarterbacks. Show patience! He’ll be sitting there for you later in your draft. Pull the trigger, ignore the snickering around the draft room, and rub it in your opponents’ face in December when your hoist the fantasy championship.

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