Maximizing your players’ draft position or auction price

Posted by Joseph Buccellato July 10, 2009

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Reach: Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ

Value: Leon Washington, RB, NYJ

Value: Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ

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Jones had the best season of his career in 2008: 1312 rushing yards, 36 catches, 207 receiving yards, and 15 TDs. These stats made Jones a top five running back, rewarding his fantasy owners with superb value. Jones’ career didn’t get rolling until 2004, so he might have some fresh legs in his soon-to-be 31-year old body. However, his age is still a giant red flag, and it’s lowering his current projection. You might think you could get him on the cheap, and I ‘d feature him as a “value” guy. Two things make him a “reach” – Leon Washington and Shonn Greene.

We’ll first start with Washington. If you had a chance to watch Darren Sproles in the playoffs, that’s Washington. The guy is explosive. Every time Washington touches the ball, he is a threat to score. He could have zero touches in the first half, then explode in the third quarter for a 60-yard screen pass and return a punt for a TD. So if you’re lying on the couch Sunday afternoon watching the Jets, be patient. His opportunities will come. There are weeks during the season when he’ll carry your fantasy squad to a victory. Speaking of special team yardage, he is a fantasy must-start in leagues that reward these points. In my BEEf league that rewards special team yardage, he was the 14^th best RB and 32^nd best fantasy player. Washington will never be the number one back on the Jets, because he’ll be backing up Shonn Greene.

That’s right, I said Shonn Greene. He’s been getting rave reviews out of New York. There are rumblings that Jones is unhappy with his contract, and there is a distinct possibility that he won’t be with the team past the preseason. Even if Jones sticks around, I anticipate he’ll start losing carries to Greene immediately. In Dynasty/Keeper league rookie drafts, he’s going to be the no better than the fourth back selected, behind Knowshon Moreno, Chris “Beanie” Wells, and Donald Brown. If you are the owner of a top three rookie draft pick, you should investigate into sliding down to the number four spot. You could get some quality talent and still land a solid RB.

The current running back projections are as follows:

Jones = low-30’s

Greene = mid-30’s

Washington = low-40’s

Greene and Washington present great value. They both will be mainstays on your roster for many years to come. Don’t be fooled by Jones’ projection. It will wind up being a wasted pick.

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