Fantasy Football Stockwatch: Reach Vs. Value (Julius Jones / Brent Celek)
Maximizing your players’ draft position or auction price
Posted by Joseph Buccellato June 24, 2009
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Reach: Julius Jones, RB, SEA
Psst. He stinks. I’d much rather have a running back in a committee than be stuck with Jones. Heck, I’d rather have second year Seahawk back Justin Forsett. Julius Jones has cracked 1,000 yards just once in his five-year career, and he has averaged just over three TDs per year in the past four seasons. In addition, he puts up no meaningful receiving stats. Don’t be suckered by his apparent depth chart status. He’s soft, and you will be embarrassed to have him on your fantasy team. He could be projected as high as the upper 20’s. UPPER 20’s!!! Are you kidding me? I did a quick run-through of a running back list, and there are 20 guys after the top 30 that I’d rather own. In Dynasty/Keeper leagues, his projection will surely slip closer to the mid-30’s. Even then, he is still a reach.
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Value: Brent Celek, TE, PHI
Celek’s 19 catches, 151 yards, and three TDs in three playoff games put him on many folks fantasy radar. I suspect many folks never heard of the guy prior to the playoffs, considering his 27 catches, 318 yards, one TD regular season stats. Celek will be number one tight end on the Eagles heading into 2009, and he will reward fantasy owners. He’s got legit playmaking skills, and plays in a pass-friendly offense. There is no way he will be drafted as a top 10 tight end. If you run down the tight end list, there’s even a chance he could fall closer to 20. I wouldn’t gamble on the latter though, especially in Dynasty/Keeper leagues. Feel confident grabbing him around 12, and enjoy steady stats for the entire season.
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[...] risk waiting until your last pick to draft some clown. Don’t believe me? Check out last year’s “Reach vs. Value” piece on Brent Celek. Click the link below to access the rookie TE Excel [...]