Maximizing your players’ draft position or auction price

Posted by Joseph Buccellato July 12, 2009

Reach: Carson Palmer, QB, CIN

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Palmer has lost a few receivers of late. T.J. Houshmandzadeh took his 90+ catches to Seattle. Chad Ochocinco lost his mind. Palmer is going to lose Chris Henry to jail if he doesn’t change his ways. Well, at least the Bengals added crafty veteran Laveranues Coles. Palmer is solid enough to get the job done regardless of his receivers – that’s not why he’s on the “reach” report. Palmer is here because of a nasty looking trend moving in a downward fashion. Here are his numbers since his second season in the NFL:

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2005: 101.1 rating, 67.8% comp rate, 3836 yards, 33 TDs, 14 turnovers

2006:  93.9 rating, 62.3% comp rate, 4035 yards, 28 TDs, 20 turnovers

2007:  86.7 rating, 64.9% comp rate, 4131 yards, 26 TDs, 21 turnovers

2008:  69.0 rating, 58.1% comp rate, 4 games played

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Those are nice numbers for your fantasy quarterback. Too bad the important ones are moving in the wrong direction. Sure, his yardage increased for three straight seasons, but you’re only seeing 12.5-yard per game increase in the first bump, and a six-yard per game increase in his second bump. His QB rating, completion rate, and all-important TDs-to-turnovers ratio is dropping at an alarming rate. I think the fantasy community hasn’t yet realized he is no longer a stud quarterback. In a 16-team fantasy league he is definitely a starter. His descent hasn’t moved him out of that tier. However, his current Dynasty/Keeper projection has him between five and 10. If I nail my Palmer “reach”, you are going to be very upset that you passed on other offensive positions in the top rounds of your fantasy draft. Remember, quality quarterbacks can be had very deep into your fantasy draft. Don’t reach.

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Value: Torry Holt, WR, JAX

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Thirty-three years old is senior citizen territory for receivers. However, I am not ready to believe the future Hall of Famer is finished. 2008 was a disaster for everyone on the Rams, and Bulger freaking stinks! Holt now has a competent quarterback with David Garrard. He also keeps an enormous stud at running back (Steven Jackson to Maurice Jones-Drew), so teams can’t double receivers as much as they’d like. The wide receiver unit on Jacksonville is very thin, so he will need some youngsters to take the pressure off of him. Holt’s current wide receiver Dynasty/Keeper league projection has him in the mid-40’s. Between 2000 and 2007, he caught no fewer than 81 passes and 1188 yards. In 2007, he caught 93 balls for 1189 yards and seven TDs. That was only two years ago. Lets’ say you get the same totals as last season (64 catches, 796 yards), with a slight bump in TDs (three to five or six). I’d take that out of the 45^th ranked wide receiver… and that’s being conservative. Those stats represent his floor; his ceiling could easily be 75 catches and 1000 yards. The big dilemma is his ability to score TDs. But hey, that’s one of the reasons his rank is so low. At least he’s already in Florida if he has another clunker, so it will be very easy to find a retirement community. Isn’t Del Boca Vista close to Alltel Stadium?

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