Fantasy Football Stockwatch: Reach Vs. Value (Brian Cushing / Julian Peterson)
Maximizing your players’ draft position or auction price
Posted by Joseph Buccellato August 6, 2009
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Reach: Brian Cushing, LB, HOU
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I am in full support of Cushing. We grew up in neighboring towns, so it’s nice to see some local production. But Cushing is in a terrible spot to make any significant IDP impact. First, he’s the Texans strongside linebacker. As reported numerous times, Sams typically don’t make good IDP investments. They need lots of sacks and turnovers to be a fantasy factor. No Sam is capable of high tackles numbers. Off the top of my head, Angelo Crowell and Julian Peterson were the only Sam’s who have been able to crack the fantasy starting lineup in recent memory. Karlos Dansby and Thomas Davis were also decent at Sam a few years back, but certainly not definite starting material. Dansby and Davis have since been moved out of Sam, and their fantasy stock has soared as a result. Secondly, Cushing’s collegiate career is littered with injuries. NFL.com draft analysis states “(Cushing) has struggled with injuries throughout his career — missing five games due to a shoulder separation in 2005 and three games in 2007 due to a high ankle sprain, as well as undergoing surgery after the 2006 (shoulder) and 2007 (knee) spring practices.”. Sams need to shed an extra blocker or two, so there is great concern whether he can take the punishment. Cushing’s current Dynasty/Keeper league linebacker projection is in the mid-40’s. Don’t be fooled by his 15th overall selection. He should be nowhere near your rookie IDP targets on draft day.
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Value: Julian Peterson, LB, DET
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I mentioned Peterson above, and I am very bullish on him in 2008. He was dealt this off-season to the lowly Lions, and joins Ernie Sims and newly signed Larry Foote to make up the linebacking unit. Sims is the defensive centerpiece in Detroit, but don’t sleep on Peterson’s potential. Both players should be three down linebackers. Even on the dime package, Peterson can put his hand down and become an edge rusher while Sims mans the middle. I am not concerned at all with second-year player Jordan Dizon eating some playing time. He was way overrated last season, and Peterson is consistent and productive. Not including his 2004 injury-shortened season in San Francisco, he has averaged 67 solos, 20 assists, 5.6 sacks, 4.3 turnovers, and 6.5 passes defended in six seasons. He has only gotten better with age, and I expect the trend to continue in Detroit. Off-season reports out of Detroit indicate new defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham wants an aggressive defense with lots of quarterback pressure. Look for Peterson to achieve 60+ solos and 8+ sacks. Peterson’s current Dynasty/Keeper league linebacker projection is in the high-40’s. He has been a Top 25 LB the past three seasons, and you’d draft him as a borderline LB#3. Huge.
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Brian Cushing who? Oh yeah that Brian Cushing guy you said “He should be nowhere near your rookie IDP targets on draft day.” Doohh. He’s the best rookie LB out there this year!