Fantasy Football Stockwatch: Reach Vs. Value (Brandon Marshall / Zach Miller)
Maximizing your players’ draft position or auction price
Posted by Joseph Buccellato July 15, 2009
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Reach: Brandon Marshall, WR, DEN
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You want to deal with this headache? I sure don’t. It’s one thing if we’re talking about a borderline 1000-yard guy with minimal upside. However, we’re talking about a top ten Dynasty/Keeper league wide receiver. Marshall averaged 103 catches, 1295 yards, and six TDs in his past two years. The upcoming 2009 season will only be his fourth, so he is extremely young with enormous potential to keep up the monster stats. He also has enormous potential to alienate teammates and get into legal trouble. The entire Denver Broncos organization is in transition, which adds more questions than answers. And you really think Kyle Orton will allow Marshall to post better stats compared to Jay Cutler? I am staying away. I can’t have my WR#1 be this much of an influence (good or bad) on my fantasy team.
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Value: Zach Miller, TE, OAK
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Miller was a very consistent tight end last season. Besides week three, he posted at least two catches in every game of the season, and at least three catches in 11 games. He posted zero to 24 yards in three games, 25 to 49 yards in five games, and over 50 yards in eight games. I’ll take a half-season of 50 yards guaranteed from my tight end every season. What keeps Miller’s rank low has been his inability to score TDs – he only posted one last season. I suspect defenses keyed on him in the red zone, considering he was the leading Oakland receiver in yards and catches by a huge number. The Raiders’ wide receivers are still thin, so expect plenty of looks from JaMarcus Russell (or Jeff Garcia, but I doubt it). Miller will absolutely equal last season’s catches and yards total, and he has no place to go but up in regards to TDs. I consider him the last guaranteed tight end producer besides Heath Miller and Brent Celek (and Brandon Pettigrew, but keep this quiet). Feel confident passing on the top ten Dynasty/Keeper league tight ends. Miller will be available in the low-teens. Grab him and you have your 16-week starter.
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