Fantasy Football Stockwatch: NFC South Fantasy News, Week 9

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Submitted by Joseph Buccellato on November 5, 2009 � 5:46 pmNo Comment

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l<< rewind	Atlanta Falcons		fast forward >>l
ATL 27, NO 35			WAS at ATL
l<< ajc.com: (Ryan) hasn’t been quite as good in Year 2 as in Year 1. Perhaps it’s because the Falcons have played a wicked schedule — the first soft game comes Sunday against Washington — but his numbers are down in virtually every category. And it isn’t just the numbers. For reasons unclear, Matty Ice doesn’t seem as cool. To Ryan’s credit, he has the Falcons at 4-3. Given their schedule, they might well have started 3-4 or worse. But now we turn to those pesky numbers. Ryan is the NFL’s 18th-rated passer; he was 11th last season. His rating is 82.6; it was 87.7 last season. His completion percentage has dropped from 61.1 to 59.7, which isn’t a major decline, but he has thrown nine interceptions in seven games; last season he threw 11 in 16. ledger-enquirer.com: Ryan has now been intercepted at least twice in three straight games, but Smith said he’s “not concerned at all.”		>>l Despite the numbers, he makes a reliable starter in 12 team leagues. Sure, you thought you get Top 6 numbers, so it’s a bit of a letdown to date. The Redskins defense is better than average, and they have held opponent QBs in check – they rank approximately 26th in points allowed to QBs.
l<< ajc.com: Michael Turner had a great night, running like the back who was second in the NFL in rushing and made the Pro-Bowl a year ago. The O-Line and play-calling may have also been better, but the Burner gets all the credit on this one. He was running like a man possessed last night and just near willed his team to a victory with his tenacious running, hitting holes with speed and never stopping his legs. Turner reminded fans of just how explosive this offense can be if the running and passing ever get into full sync. Excellent performance all around from the running back.		>>l More like it from a Top 5 overall pick on fantasy draft day. However, it’s s tough match-up this weekend. The Redskins are the toughest team for fantasy running backs to score against.
l<< ajc.com: The defense showed up and played very well against the number one offense in the NFL. Defensive line added pressure a couple of times, and the linebackers had their usual good night, but the comeback award goes to the secondary. One of the most maligned in the NFL, the Falcons secondary showed up Monday night and played with a sense of urgency not seen in previous games. They held Drew Brees to his lowest passer rating of the year to date. True that they gave up many big plays, but from where they were a week ago to now, there was much improvement. Still a ways to go, but a solid performance against the best offense in football in their house. They kept the Falcons in the game when the offense sputtered a couple of times down the stretch.		>>l DeCoud and Coleman are on fire. Both need to be starting if your league requires two DBs.

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l<< rewind	Carolina Panthers		fast forward >>l
CAR 34, AZ 21			CAR at NO
l<< carolinagrowl.com: Leading 14-7, Delhomme pump-faked to Smith along the left sidelines and got cornerback Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie to bite. Smith raced passed him and caught the ball in mid-stride and took it to house for his first touchdown of the season.		>>l nola.com: Why is Steve Smith not having as big a year as normal? Is he struggling personally or is it the offense? Saints head coach Sean Payton said “A guy like Steve Smith is a guy that gets attention every week and so it becomes challenging. You can count on one hand how many times he doesn’t have a safety over the top of him. He can move around. We had him in the Pro Bowl and he’s a dynamic player and he has given us fits over the years. You have to be mindful of where he is on every snap. Because of his skill-set, he has drawn that coverage we’re talking about and then it becomes a little bit more challenging.” Would you say that you have more weapons in the secondary to combat a guy like Steve Smith than you have since you’ve been here? “I think we’re better in the secondary than we have been in the prior years. That’s a general statement, but that being said, there aren’t many corners covering this guy on a one-on-one basis when you watch the film. He’s sudden; he has speed; he’s tough. Those are things that when you start putting all those things together, you have a special player. I do think we’re improved in the back end compared to years past, though.”
l<< carolinagrowl.com: The Panthers returned to their winning formula on Sunday, which is running the football and playing good defense. Carolina ran 44 times for 270 yards, the second-highest total in franchise history against the league’s No. 1 ranked run defense. DeAngelo Williams ran 23 times for 158 yards, while Jonathan Stewart added 87 yards on 17 carries and scored on a pair of nifty runs. Williams averaged 6.9 yards per carry and became the franchise’s all-time leading rusher, surpassing DeShaun Foster. The bad news is fullback Brad Hoover has a high ankle sprain leaving his availability for this week in question. Also, backup fullback Tony Fiammetta left with a head injury. Carolina scored on its first two possessions and had 116 rushing yards in the first quarter, which is as many as they had all of last week against the 32nd-ranked run defense. Go figure. carolinagrowl.com: The Panthers ran the ball 44 times and threw it 15 on Sunday, which was much more in line with the run-pass ratio Fox prefers. The Panthers have never lost under Fox when they’ve run the football 40 or more times in a game.		>>l We’ll see how the Panthers respond if they don’t have a serviceable fullback. The Saints rank 20th in points given up to running backs.
l<< carolinagrowl.com: It was beginning to look like rookie Sherrod Martin’s rookie season might be more about watching and learning than playing and reacting. That is, until Sunday. Martin, who up until then had played primarily on special teams, was thrust into the starting lineup at free safety after Charles Godfrey sprained his ankle the previous week in a loss to Buffalo. Martin intercepted Kurt Warner twice in Carolina’s 34-21 victory, which are twice as many interceptions as Godfrey had in his previous 22 starts at that position. Ron Meeks’ defense is predicated on creating turnovers and Martin showed Sunday he can be another playmaker in the secondary which makes it hard to sit him.		>>l Keep your eye on him in your IDP waiver wire. He three solos were pedestrian, so don’t go overboard on him just yet.
l<< carolinagrowl.com: After the game, Fox said Peppers is in the midst of the best four-game stretch he’s ever seen him play. When Peppers was told about Fox’s praise after the season, he replied, “That’s his opinion… I feel like I’m playing well, but I can’t say as well as I’ve ever played before. But that’s up to him and up to y’all to determine that. Everybody has their own opinion about that.” carolinagrowl.com: Since the bye week, Peppers has 23 tackles, six sacks, eight quarterback pressures, two forced fumbles and an interception return for a touchdown. Others like Charles Johnson, Tyler Brayton and Everette Brown have begun to follow his lead and are finding ways to get pressure. Carolina has 13 sacks in the last four games.		>>l nola.com: If you double-team him, who else is most fearful to you on that defense? Saints head coach Sean Payton said “When you talk about double-teaming him, are you talking about an extra lineman or a running back or a tight end? There are a lot of things that you have to do to at least take the edge off of his speed. We try to do that with formations. We try to do that with tight ends; we try to do that with the running backs and still not sacrifice flair control. But they do a good job of moving him around so you just can’t break the huddle and say he’s always going to be here. He moves – much like we saw John Abraham move last Monday night. We have to recognize where he’s aligned and then we have to during the course of the week understand how we’re going to handle him. Obviously the pressure falls on both tackles but it falls on a lot of people.”

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l<< rewind	New Orleans Saints		fast forward >>l
ATL 27, NO 35			CAR at NO
l<< sunherald.com: The Saints’ past two victories have been riddled with errors, starting with eight turnovers, six of which were committed by the quarterback with four interceptions and a pair of fumbles. “You look at it – four turnovers against Miami, four again against Atlanta – and those were good football teams we played and we were able to overcome them because of great defensive play and making some big plays offensively when we had to,” Brees said.		>>l 7-0 is all that matters. This team is a juggernaut, in both real life and in fantasy. The Panthers rank 23rd in points allowed (23.7), but surprisingly rank 7th in yards against (288.1). It’s because teams run wild against them, so passing yards are way down.
l<< nola.com: Brees offered a breakdown Wednesday of what broke down. When it happened, it looked like the Falcons had called a delayed blitz up the middle. But the way Brees saw it, he said DeCoud appeared to be responsible for covering tailback Reggie Bush, who got caught in some traffic while trying to run a short route up the middle. “It was man-to-man coverage, and sometimes when their man blocks, they blitz,” Brees said. “So it was one of those things where our guy (Bush) looked like he was blocking, but really he was just trying to kind of fight his way out. So (DeCoud) comes and I’m looking somewhere else, and all of a sudden my eyes come back around and he’s hitting me in the chin. “But here’s the thing, risk-reward. If he does that and I dump it to the guy he’s supposed to be covering, it goes 50 yards without anybody touching him. So that’s the whole thing with pressures. You pressure to try and create a big play while understanding that you could give one up as well. That’s the cat and mouse game.”		>>l Just some insight into the eyes of Brees. I always find this stuff fascinating.
l<< ledger-enquirer.com: Greer’s touchdown was the Saints’ fifth score on an interception this season, tying a single-season franchise mark set in 1998. The Saints have at least one interception in every game this season and a total of 16, one more than they had all of last season.		>>l With and average D’, this team is nothing special. The turnovers created have put them over the top. Defensive convoys to the endzone have made this the team to beat.

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l<< rewind	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		fast forward >>l
NE 35, TB 7 (week 7)			GB at TB
l<< tbo.com: rookie Josh Freeman will need help. Though Bucs quarterbacks have combined to produce a passer rating that ranks 28th in the league, it often has been the players around them who have done in the Bucs. In London, for example, the Bucs were victimized as much by missed tackles, dropped passes and missed blocking assignments as by quarterback Josh Johnson’s untimely interceptions. It has been that way all season, so it stands to reason that Freeman won’t fare much better if the players around him don’t start playing better.		>>l Freeman can’t save this team without a decent offensive line, an increase in the running game, and some receiving help. Freeman is only worth rostering for dynasty purposes.
l<< tbo.com: After seven games, the offense ranks 27th in the league in points per game (13.7), 28th in yards per game (272.3) and 25th in third-down conversion percentage (32). The defense ranks 27th in the league in yards allowed per game (376.4), 27th in total points allowed (203) and 28th in third-down conversion percentage (44). The Bucs are also last in the league in field goal percentage and 25th in kick return average.		>>l The Packers rank 9th in rushing defense (99.4), passing defense (184), and points per game (19.1). That’s some feng shui!
l<< tampabay.com: The coaching staff has been trying to find ways to get Derrick Ward involved, but Cadillac Williams’ strong play and game circumstances have made it difficult to get Ward more work. On Sunday against the Patriots in London, Ward led the Bucs with a season-high 13 carries, but they came at the expense of Williams, who appeared to be heating up with 51 yards on his first seven touches, which included a 19-yard reception. Williams finished with 11 carries for 29 yards. It seems striking a balance between the two running backs — while facing big deficits that make running the ball difficult — continues to be a sticky issue.		>>l Ward was the first opinion piece I did this off-season about guys who were “reaches”. It’s one of the few things I nailed. Bench him in all leagues. As for Caddy this weekend, The Packers rank approximately 28th in points allowed to running backs.
l<< The Bucs never envisioned WR Sammie Stroughter being central to their offense, but for the second straight game, his contributions were critical. The rookie seventh-round draft pick led the Bucs with three receptions for 63 yards. But his catches aren’t routine plays. Playing in the slot, generally on third down, Stroughter is usually on the field for important snaps. To that end, each of his catches Sunday went for a first down, each coming on third down. Of his 16 catches this year, 13 have gone for first downs, with eight coming on third-down plays. Stroughter played a role on special teams, too, serving as the primary return man in place of inactive Clifton Smith (concussion). While filling in for Smith against the Panthers last week, Stroughter tied a team record with a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Sunday in London, he was a step shy of breaking away on two occasions, leaving him determined to not be stopped.		>>l Bye weeks are almost over, so you can forget about him real soon unless you have major injuries. If the Bucs had a decent WR#2, he’d be a backup. Say, when was the last time the Bucs had multiple good, consistent receivers?
l<< tampabay.com: The Bucs secondary has come up with several potentially game-changing plays in recent weeks, from CB Aqib Talib’s three interceptions at Washington to S Tanard Jackson’s interception return for a touchdown against the Panthers last week. But those plays went to waste, as did two more in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots. Jackson made a touchdown-saving interception of a Tom Brady pass in the end zone in the second quarter, and Talib added an interception down the middle against WR Brandon Tate a few minutes later. But those plays were negated by subsequent breakdowns.		>>l Tanard Jackson is hot since returning from suspension. Add him to your roster immediately. Talib is hit or miss, so you are rolling the dice with him.

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