Posted by Joe Buccellato April 16, 2009

.

 

Courtesy: Icon Sports Media

 

 

Owning a reliable tight end is important. It ends the waiver wire shuffle, and gives you opportunities to score points every week. There are few things more frustrating than starting Robert Royal versus the Jets because:

(1) you discover the Jets give up the second most points to TE’s;

(2) the other TE options stink, and;

(3) the game is on your local television so you have someone to cheer for… only to drive you nuts with one catch for four yards and a dropped TD pass.

.

Percentages for a 16 team league:

40 Tight Ends

17.5% chance of owning a starter.

2.5% chance of owning a reliable backup.

10.0% chance of getting lucky with a weekly pickup.

70.0% chance of no meaningful contribution in third season.

.

The total percent of rookie tight ends worth being on a roster for this three year period is 9.1%. The number more than doubles to 20% in a player’s third season. If you’re in a dynasty league, and your league has extra roster spots, you have a one-in-five chance at drafting an eventual TE starter.

.

There have been zero first round busts for third year tight ends. Vernon Davis disappointed in 2008, but he could have been used on occasional weeks. Of the seven fantasy tight end starters, three were drafted in the first round (Miller, Winslow, Watson), two in the second round (Fasano, Scheffler), one in the third round (Cooley), and one in the fourth round (Daniels).

.

This year’s group of third season tight ends includes Greg Olsen, Zach Miller, Kevin Boss, Dante Rosario, Brent Celek, and Ben Patrick. Hopefully you already own Olsen in your keeper/dynasty league, because if you don’t, you will have to fork over an extremely high pick to draft him. That’s the Cutler effect. Patrick will have to beat out Leonard Pope and Steven Spach for playing time. The other four tight ends are all solid draftable/keeper options.

 

Here’s the 3rd Season Tight End Report:

.

 > 090416-te-3-year-report <

Share this Post: