Fantasy Football Stockwatch: AFC West Fantasy News, Week 11

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Reach Vs. Value

Submitted by Joseph Buccellato on November 17, 2009 � 9:02 pmOne Comment

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l<< rewind	Denver Broncos		fast forward >>l
DEN 17, WAS 27			SD at DEN
l<< denverpost.com: Orton stood tall in the pocket in the face of the Rush Street criticism heard by every Chicago Bears quarterback since Sid Luckman. Greeted in Denver by booing from disgruntled Broncomaniacs, Orton endured a grotesquely dislocated finger during an exhibition game and came back quicker than many of his peers would have done, starting his first season in Colorado wearing a glove on his throwing hand. But there remained nagging thoughts in my head as Orton leaned on crutches, clearly in discomfort but looking more nimble than I expected, as he made the rounds down the hallway and through a cramped visitors’ locker room after Denver’s offense disappeared in his absence and the Broncos gave up 13 points to Washington in the fourth quarter. Could the veteran quarterback have played on a damaged ankle? Should Orton have given it a go? The line between playing hurt and risking further injury is one of the touchiest, murkiest, most contentious areas of gray in the NFL, where pain is part of every player’s life. Orton hurried himself back from an ankle injury a year ago and was never the same quarterback, performing so poorly late in the 2008 season the Bears were willing to dump him and overpay to acquire Cutler from Denver. Orton operated with discretion against the Redskins, which might well be the better part of valor but counts for nothing in the NFL standings.		>>l denverpost.com: It is too soon to know if the ankle will keep Orton out of Sunday’s crucial game against AFC West rival San Diego at Invesco Field at Mile High, though the team remains hopeful Orton will be ready, McDaniels said. The Broncos won’t hold their first practice in preparation for San Diego until Wednesday, at which point Orton will get his first real chance to test the ankle. The piece to the left praises Orton for his pre-season toughness. Then complains that Orton may have been a bit soft on Sunday. If you own Orton, you should be scrambling to find another option vs the Chargers. If he does play, the Chargers give up approximately the 23rd most fantasy points to QBs.
l<< denverpost.com: Orton started fast against the Washington Redskins on Sunday. He threw long and twice found a wide-open Brandon Marshall for touchdown passes of 40 and 75 yards. Orton completed 4-of-4 passes for 124 yards and a 158.3 passer rating in the first quarter. But (Orton) couldn’t finish. With backup quarterback Chris Simms struggling to shake off nearly 3 1/2 years of rust, the Broncos suffered a disheartening 27-17 loss to the Redskins.		>>l Super game plan sabotaged by the injury. When Orton gets healthy, they need to keep going deep a few times per game. It will open everything up. The Chargers give up approximately the 20th most fantasy points to WRs. However, the Chargers’ pass defense gave up huge yards last week to Philly.
l<< denverpost.com: Moreno is coming off his best game. He had 97 yards on 18 carries against Washington. “Made some guys miss tackles and did a nice job,” McDaniels said. “There were some plays where there wasn’t much there, but he didn’t go negative. He went, got a yard, got a 2-yard gain here or there and kept us in positive situations. That is something that he’s doing better and better as the year goes on.”		>>l Buckhalter is nothing special. Moreno’s full time gig is nearing. The Chargers give up approximately the 9th most fantasy points to RBs, and is ranked 23rd in rushing yards allowed (118.9 yards per game).
l<< dailycamera.com: The Washington Redskins did everything except hold a big neon sign to let the world know that a trick play was in the works. It was fourth-and-20 at the 35, and the Redskins had already showed fake by splitting tight end Todd Yoder wide as a receiver in field goal formation. The attempt was initially aborted when coach Jim Zorn had to call timeout because Washington had only 10 men on the field. Then, even though the Broncos were on notice, even though there were 20 yards to go, the Redskins still ran the fake. Yoder split out and went in motion. Smith took the snap, rolled right and lobbed the ball deep — and back across the field — to Sellers for the touchdown that tied the score at 14. Two hours later, the Broncos were still trying to figure out what happened. “They were setting up something — we knew it,” defensive lineman Vonnie Holliday said. “They came back, and I think they may have even yelled out on their sideline, ‘Let`s just punt it. Let`s just punt it.` And I guess we just bought into it, because we didn`t lock in on the play and what was going on. It seems like it took forever to unfold.” “They definitely got the momentum,” Holliday said, “and, from there on, it seems like we never got the momentum back.”		>>l Good teams don’t let one razzle dazzle play change the outcome. Well, Simms playing time doesn’t help either.
l<< denverpost.com: The Broncos certainly have fallen on run defense, a vertigo-inducing drop to the No. 12 spot after their third consecutive loss and the third consecutive game surrendering at least 125 yards rushing. They have seven games remaining with six opponents and just one of those six teams is ranked among the league’s top 19 at running the ball. That would be the Giants, who were ninth in rushing before Monday night’s game. The Chargers are last in the league (32nd) running the ball, the Chiefs 24th, the Colts 29th, the Raiders 20th and the Eagles 23rd. In a perfect world that would be the good news, However, Denver has surrendered more than 170 yards rushing in back-to-back weeks to teams that currently are ranked 17th and 19th running the ball.		>>l It took nearly half a season, but it appears teams have figured out this defense. I was screaming in the pre-season that this defense would be terrible. While it’s not as bad as I thought, it is becoming clear teams can pick apart this unit.

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l<< rewind	Kansas City Chiefs		fast forward >>l
KC 16, OAK 10			PIT at KC
l<< kansascity.com: Bowe was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Whatever growing up Bowe has done, today’s news clearly illustrates that there is far more that Bowe has to do. The timing couldn’t be worse for the Chiefs. Haley had said last week and again Sunday that the team’s beleaguered wide-receivers corps was finally showing signs of progress, and no one was responsible for more growth than Dwayne Bowe. The third-year wideout reported to the team’s offseason conditioning program a staggering 30 pounds overweight. He plays a position that hinges sometimes on a swing of three or four pounds, and Bowe had packed on 10 times that amount of weight in only a few months. Haley demoted Bowe, bullied him, disparaged him, embarrassed him. Somehow, it worked. Or seemed to. Bowe lost the weight and became the chiseled wideout that Haley envisioned so many months ago. It really didn’t take that long, either. Now, everyone will wonder if Bowe’s transformation was legitimate. Did he lose those 30 pounds with hard work or with banned substances? More, people will wonder how long this has been going on. What else regarding Bowe can be attributed to these kinds of questions? The problem for the Chiefs is that Bowe, unlike Larry Johnson, is part of the future. Bowe is 25 years old and is a huge part of what Kansas City sees as its foundation.		>>l Bowe owners will have him back for the fantasy playoffs. I doubt there will be any internal scolding from the Chiefs, considering 95% of the league uses Vitamin S. I knew he has pre-season issues, but I had no clue about the weight issue. I don’t like it one bit as a Bowe Keeper-League owner.
l<< kansascity.com: Jamaal Charles wasted no time claiming ownership of the newly vacant Chiefs running back job. Charles delivered the Chiefs’ first individual 100-yard game of the season Sunday against the Raiders. He provided their first rushing touchdown, a brilliant 44-yarder on a fourth-down play. kansascity.com: It’s easy to forget now, but Haley and the Chiefs were so down on Charles that he was inactive when they played the Raiders in September at Arrowhead Stadium. They went with Johnson and Dantrell Savage as their backs that day and lost 13-10. While Charles could have helped the Chiefs win that day, perhaps they gained a bigger victory with his benching. Haley indicated Charles returned to work after that earlier Raiders game a different player.		>>l Calm down, at least for this weekend. The Steelers rank 1st against the run (69.3 yards per game), and give up approximately the 29th most fantasy points to RBs.
l<< kansascity.com: In the aftermath of his second victory, he acknowledged that his football instincts push him to gamble. On Sunday, with the Raiders doing everything they possibly could to secure their seventh loss, Haley tried to out-dumb Al Davis’ men in black. Late in the third quarter, facing fourth and 1 at the Oakland 14 and leading 13-10, Haley turned down a field-goal attempt, a short-yardage run and had Matt Cassel bootleg right for a pass attempt. The Raiders broke up the pass and stayed within a Sebastian Janikowski field goal of a tie game. Worse, when the Chiefs did tack on an additional field goal in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs led by six rather than an insurmountable number such as nine. “I have to be smart,” Haley admitted. “You can’t let the circumstances get to you too much.” The circumstances are: 1. Haley and Scott Pioli are getting a very difficult lesson in just how hard it is to win in the NFL; 2. Kansas City’s personnel is below average; 3. After running his mouth and carrying himself like his coaching would magically produce five or six victories, Haley is embarrassed. Rather than humble himself, Haley is trying to win football games from the sideline. This is why I’ve been harping on “ego” all season. An out-of-control ego makes coaches and executives do dumb stuff. They start “thinking outside the box” and convince themselves they can turn three points into seven with a special play on fourth and 1. They forget that against the Raiders, JaMarcus Russell and Tom Cable, three points might as well be seven. Haley said his biggest regret was trying a failed 52-yard field goal. That “was a dumber” decision than going on fourth and 1, Haley said. Hmm. What about the third-down play-calling? The Chiefs converted one of 15 third downs! Haley tried a Cassel draw on one third-down play. And Haley seemed reluctant to run Jamaal Charles in third-and-short situations. When Haley acknowledged his gambling nature, he added that it was important for his assistant coaches to “check him” when he’s “acting a fool.” Haley specifically mentioned assistant head coach Maurice Carthon. Good luck with that job, Mo. Chan Gailey got fired, and receivers coach Dedric Ward got demoted for trying to “check” Haley. Checking Haley is the responsibility of general manger Scott Pioli, the one person in the organization whose ego is more out of control than Haley’s. The mind-set of the organization is that the GM and head coach are going to win football games. That’s just not the case in the NFL. Good coaches put players in position to win games. Haley avoided a major disaster Sunday. Had the Chiefs lost, it would’ve been hard to argue he deserves a second season.		>>l It’s a bit much to copy/paste, but it’s a very fascinating piece. Seems the KC media isn’t in love with the guy. Bad decisions make the inmates a little more crazy.

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l<< rewind	Oakland Raiders		fast forward >>l
KC 16, OAK 10			CIN at OAK
l<< insidebayarea.com: Cable said flatly he had the latitude to decide his quarterback, and that he had talked with Al Davis but the subject hadn’t come up. Roll that one around in your mind for a minute. Another passing game disaster necessitating the removal of the future of the franchise in a loss to a 1-7 team, and the subject of Russell never came up.		>>l insidebayarea.com: Thoughts on JaMarcus’ play? Cable: You know really why I took him out of the game, what I explained to him when I took him out of the game on the sideline, the last two throws were all over the place. Just a number of mental errors and misreads and so made the change and it is what it is. We’ll take it to the next step which is actually going to be here in the next 24-48 hours.
l<< insidebayarea.com: One reason why Michael Bush may not have gotten more than 14 carries? After carrying five straight times for 35 yards on the Raiders first possession of the third quarter, he signaled for a breather, at which time Justin Fargas came in and was stopped for no gain. On one hand, Cable understood Bush’s fatigue. On the other, he made it clear he would have liked to simply keep giving him the ball. “I would have rode that one,” Cable said. “Five tough runs like that in a row is a pretty good deal.” insidebayarea.com: The Wildcat, or the “Wild Hog’’ as Cable calls it, made its return with McFadden taking the snap as a shotgun quarterback. On consecutive plays it gained five yards, the first with McFadden running it after faking to Higgins on a reverse and the second time actually giving it to Higgins.		>>l This should be Bush’s team, at least for the short-term. And yes, I say “short-term” because I am a biased McFadden owner. The Bengals rank 2nd against the run (83.4 yards per game), and give up approximately the 25th most fantasy points to RBs. Hopefully you don’t own a Raider running back.
l<< insidebayarea.com: Q: Is Chaz finally ready for a bigger role in the offense? Cable: Yes. Yeah, we’ll talk through and work through all that this week, but he certainly came out of the game in great shape. insidebayarea.com: Q: More two tight end sets? Cable: Well if you look at us we’re almost 60 percent two tight ends as an so we’re already doing that insidebayarea.com: Heyward-Bey played 54 of the 63 offensive snaps. Wide receiver Chaz Schilens, in his first game of the season, was in for 38 snaps, Johnnie Lee Higgins 22 and Louis Murphy 15. What Heyward-Bey delivered was one catch for 22 yards and two huge red zone drops, the second of which resulted in an interception by the Chiefs’ Mike Brown that derailed a two-minute drill conducted by Bruce Gradkowski that had the Raiders in position to win. Heyward-Bey was gone by the time the media arrived, leaving his teammates to speak for him..		>>l Schilens has no ceiling without a competent quarterback. The only way the Raiders can win a game or two the rest of the way is to continue the Twin TE set and pound the run.
l<< insidebayarea.com: Oakland has still scored two touchdowns in a game just once _ Week 1 against San Diego. They have seven touchdowns on the season. In Cable’s 21 games as head coach, the Raiders have had one or zero touchdowns 16 times.		>>l At least Cleveland is on the schedule in week 16. Perhaps you’ll have a sneaky Raider option in your fantasy Championship game.

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l<< rewind	San Diego Chargers		fast forward >>l
PHI 23, SD 31			SD at DEN
l<< denverpost.com: During San Diego’s four-game winning streak, Rivers has thrown nine touchdown passes to go with three interceptions. He’s also been sacked only five times combined in those four games. Rivers completed 80 percent of his passes.		>>l The Chargers O-line and QB is in a sweet groove for fantasy owners. Tough test for Rivers – the Broncos rank 5th against the pass (186.7 yards per game), and give up approximately the 31st most fantasy points to QBs.
l<< denverpost.com: The Eagles used double coverage to limit Vincent Jackson to a season-low one reception for 10 yards. That, in part, allowed tight end Antonio Gates to reassume the team reception lead after he caught seven passes for 78 yards yesterday. Gates has 49 catches this season, Jackson has 43.		>>l Hey, V-Jax owners can’t complain – he’s been a stud. The two players together are lethal. The Broncos give up approximately the 31st most fantasy points to TEs, and approximately the 30th most fantasy points to WRs. You’re not benching either guy though unless you’re in an eight team league.
l<< signonsandiego.com: And yesterday, here against the Philadelphia Eagles, a different form of brinkmanship was necessary. They had watched a 28-9 fourth-quarter lead dissipate to 28-23 with 7:12 remaining. The way they were allowing Philly quarterback Donovan McNabb to stand back there as if he were waiting for a check in the mail, it seemed like a good idea at the time to do something, because stopping him had become a problem. Head coach Norv Turner decided sitting on the lead wasn’t an option. With the ball on his 23, Turner instructed quarterback Philip Rivers to throw it, and so he did. He ran 11 plays, six of them passes, five of them complete, before the drive stalled at the Eagles’ 11 and Nate Kaeding kicked a 29-yard field goal with 30 seconds to play.		>>l Some fluff from the hometown paper. Norv couldn’t sit on the lead because the Charges can’t run the football with any authority. Rivers passing is more effective at moving the chains and bleeding the clock than rushing LT2 or Sproles.
l<< signonsandiego.com: Ron Rivera told his defense it would be giving up yards yesterday but not giving them up in big chunks, and that would help the Chargers win their fourth straight game. “What we did was believe in our game plan,” linebacker Shaun Phillips said, “and follow it the whole way.” As bend-but-don’t-break as maybe a team could possibly be, the Chargers did that better than it might have appeared in a game McNabb connected on a career-high 35 passes. And after the Chargers took a 14-0 lead early in the second quarter, Weddle said, “We knew it was just going to turn into a pass-happy offense. McNabb in those situations is really good. We just had to eliminate the big play, make them drive, and when they get in the red zone know what they like to do and take it away.” The Chargers played a conservative zone — more than they had all season, as soft and deep as they have all season — and didn’t do a very good job underneath at times.		>>l More fluff, in my opinion. “Prevent” defenses prevent you from winning. The Chargers defense relies on pressure from Merriman and Phillips. They started coming on of late, but the team only managed 2 sacks vs the Eagles. If the Chargers plan to use this so-called scheme in the future, it’s one and done in the playoffs.

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