Posted by Joe Buccellato April 7, 2009

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As identified in our DL rookie report below, stay away from starting rookie lineman. They need time to grow, and should mostly be targeted in dynasty leagues. If you happen to own a young-end entering his third season, now is the time to get excited about potential.

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Percentages for a 16 team league, starting 2 DLs:

115 Defensive Linemen

• 8.7% chance of owning a starter.
• 4.3% chance of owning a DL#3 backup.
• 3.5% chance of owning a DL#4 backup, if you decide on carrying 4 DLs.
• 4.3% chance of getting lucky with a weekly pickup because you are desperate.
• 79.2% chance of no contribution in third season

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The total percent of rookie defensive lineman worth being on a roster for this three year period is 3.3%. The number skyrockets to 13% in year three, and that doesn’t include owning a DL#4. If you have patience and roster flexibility, you will obtain success.

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Only four defensive ends drafted in the first round did not produce meaningful stats in their third season: Luis Castillo, Marcus Spears, Erasmus James, and Kenechi Udeze. Keep in mind Castillo and Spears played end in the 3-4, which really limits stats. Only three ends drafted in the second round did not produce meaningful stats: Igor Olshansky, Antwan Odom, and Marquise Hill. Hill and Olshansky were also in the 3-4. You may miss a future stud like Trent Cole (drafted in fifth round) or Justin Tuck (third round), but targeting first or second round 4-3 ends is the way to go.

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This year’s group of third season lineman with serious impact potential includes Gaines Adams, and… hmmm… nobody. The 2007 lineman class looks terrible. The duds include Jamaal Anderson, Jarvis Moss, Turk McBride, Tim Crowder, Victor Abiamiri, Ikaika Alama-Francis, and Dan Bazuin. The percentages suggest someone in this group will step up, and I’ll put my money on Alama-Francis. Editor’s note: I own Alama-Francis in dynasty league, so feel free to ignore last statement.

 

Check out the DL 3 Year Report:

.   > 090406-dl-3-year-report <

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