Posted by Mike Caprio June 10, 2009

Aside from the obvious, in Stephen Strasburg, this year’s draft class is generally regarded as a “weak” talent pool, with a heavy tilt towards the pitchers…but as in every draft, there will be fantasy baseball players ”you need to know”.

As most of you know, I am a big fan of Baseball Prospectus, and rely heavily on Kevin Goldstein’s analysis of amateur and MiLB prospects, but I also follow Jim Callis at Baseball America and Keith Law at ESPN to form a consensus of opinion on a player or prospect.

For editorial purposes, I will leave off any players who have overwhelming signability issues, and will assume in absence of that, each player will end up with his drafted team.

Additionally, since this is a Fantasy Baseball Keeper League forum, I’ll only include players likely to impact their teams in 2010, 2011 or 2012.

That being said…

Top Bat Taken in Round One (Icon Sports Media)

1. Dustin Ackley, 1B/CF, Seattle Mariners

After the obvious #1 pick, Ackley served as the obvious runner-up, profiling as the best pure hitter in this year’s draft.   At University of North Carolina, Ackley played 1B, but the Mariners hope (believe) that Ackley will roam CF at Safeco Field.  He profiles as a base stealing, contact hitter, who should compete for a batting title and steal 20-30 bases a year.  His power profiles as “average”, with 17 HR’s this season at Chapel Hill, translating into 10-15 HR’s in the big leagues.  The Mariners are traditionally aggressive in their promotion of talent, so expect Ackley to season next year at Hi-A High Desert or AA West Tennessee after a Winter League debut in the AFL.   Expect Ackley full-time in Seattle no earlier than opening day 2011.

2. Donovan Tate, OF, San Diego Padres

Don’t want to spend too much time here due to signability issues—with a commitment for both football and baseball at UNC, and representation by Scott Boras—making Tate a tough sign for the Padres.  Nonetheless, he is clearly the top HS hitter in the draft, and could be an impact player in 2011, but more likely 2012.

3. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Brian Sabean loves him some pitching.  Wheeler, a projectable right-handed prep from Georgia gives the Giants yet another arm in a very talented pool of hurlers.  Today, with a two pitch repertoire that features a fastball that sits in the low 90’s, with the ability to dial up to 94 MPH, combined with a powerful Slurve that serves as his “out” pitch, gives Wheeler the base from which to build a third offering.  As such, Wheeler will need to develop a change-up and work on repeating his delivery to maximize control.  Look for Wheeler to join the big leagues in 2012-2013.

4. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Leake is the closest to a major-league ready arm at the top of the draft.  His size (6′0″, 180 Lbs.) scares some scouts, but his athleticism and “grit” kept him at the top of many draft boards and made him a winner at Arizona State University.   With an above average 4-pitch arsenal (Fastball 90-92 MPH, Slider Change-up and Cutter), Leake will often sacrifice velocity for movement…the sign of a mature pitcher.  Leake has the ability to join the big league club in 2010, if he signs quickly, and joins Winter ball during the off-season.

5. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers

It’s unclear whether Turner, a prep right hander represented by Scott Boras, will sign with the Tigers or enroll at Chapel Hill where he has committed for the fall semester.  At 6′ 5″, Turner has a scout’s dream of a frame, with an “easy” 3/4 delivery that makes his 94 MPH Fastball appear much faster.  When his secondary stuff is working, he is virtually unhittable, but his curve often, and mysteriously disappears, which will hurt a young man in A Ball.   If he signs before the deadline, look for Tuner to begin in Rookie ball, with a slow progression that could culminate in a 2012 call-up—if all goes well.

Top Prep Arm in Round One? (Icon Sports Media)

6. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies

Signability is a concern here, as Matzek’s agent, with a bullhorn in tow, shouted to anyone who would listen that he was aiming to set a record for a prep hurler.  The Rockies won the sweepstakes, and could, if he signs, end up with one of the most exciting pitchers in the draft.  Although he hasn’t used his full arsenal much this season, Fastball (90-92 MPH), Power Curve, Change-up and Slider, he has the ability, with proper tutelage to maximize his delivery and repertoire to succeed at a major league level.  If he signs with the Rockies, Matzek would begin at Rookie ball next season, with a likely MLB ETA of 2012/2013.

7. Aaron Crow, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Many of you may remember that Crow was drafted and subsequently lost last season by the hapless Nationals.  Their loss is KC’s gain.   Crow has been pitching in the independent leagues, which has left him a bit rusty, but his offerings, including a 94-96 MPH sinking fastball, and a power slider, rate as plus.  His smallish frame, and two-pitch repertoire lead some to believe he is a “closer” in waiting…which would severely diminish his value.  However, he is the closest pitcher in this year’s draft to big leagues.  Expect him to join Hi-A Wilmington following a successful debut in the Arizona Fall League.

8. Grant Green, SS, Oakland A’s

Green was seen among many scouts and draft prognosticators as a Top-3 pick in this year’s draft, off the heels of a monster showing in the Cape Cod League last summer.  However, nagging injuries and some draft jitters caused Green to fall to 13th overall to the Oakland A’s.  Green profiles as crafty bat, with top-end speed, likely hitting .275-.290 with 15-20 HR’s, 20 SB out of the SS/2B position in the big leagues.  Expect Green to be “fast tracked” to the upper levels of the A’s system quickly—either as major league prospect, or as trade bait.  He could make the big club when rosters expand in 2010, but more likely in 2011.

Look for the rest of the Round 1 and Round 2 tomorrow…

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