Posted by Mike Caprio July 9, 2009

We’re just under a week away from the All-Star Break, when legions of fans and fantasy baseball owners take stock on the 1st half and handicap the final three months of the season.

Taking a break from some of the Fantasy Football content over the next several days, I wanted to take stock of our own pre-season Top 10 2009 Fantasy Baseball Keepers, while highlighting some surprising performances over the 1st half of the 2009 baseball season.

How long can he flirt with .400? (Icon Sports Media)

Catcher

Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll mentioned a couple of days ago on Twitter that the Catcher position has been unusually weak this season.  As I glance at the Top Catchers from our Draft Cheat Sheet with their 2009 statistics, he’s spot on.

What went right

Joe Mauer continues to tear up the baseball after off-season Kidney surgery robbed him of Spring Training, and a month of the regular season;  Brian McCann appears to have finally hit his stride after complications related to lasik; Matt Wieters has finally begun his as-yet “legendary” career in Baltimore; and Victor Martinez has resurfaced as the tour-de-force at Fantasy catcher this season.

What went wrong

Geovany Soto has been nothing short of terrible after a stellar rookie campaign; Russell Martin, Chris Iannetta, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia have not lived up to expectations; Jeff Clement continues to torture AAA pitching, but has yet to see a MLB At-Bat in 2009; and Ryan Doumit suffered a catastrophic wrist injury that could rob the young man of much of his power upon his return to Pittsburgh.

Biggest Surprise

In his last season of catcher eligibility Brandon Inge has been a player championship teams draft without realizing what they’ve won.  With 19 HR’s on a much improved Tigers’ team, Inge is clearly the “sleeper” winner at Catcher for the 1st half of the season.  If you own him, keep in mind that his value at Catcher clearly surpasses his value at the hot corner.   If you own him and are out of it…sell high.

Biggest Surprise at 1B this season? (Icon Sports Media)

First Base

First Base appears to be a deep fantasy position, but like catcher and second base, when you get outside the Top 5, it’s a little dicey to handicap your overall fantasy bounty.

What went right

Albert Pujols is on pace for the first Triple Crown in 30+ years; Mark Teixeira rebounded from a slow April to post a 934 OPS in Pinstripes; Prince Feilder has shown greater patience and it’s translated into an improvement in stats across the board; Lance Berkman continues his career norm of performance, while Adrian Gonzalez has put on a show (when he gets pitches to hit) at Petco.

What went wrong

Joey Votto missed over a month struggling with depression related to the passing of his father; and Chris Davis finds himself back at Oklahoma City, despite 15 HR’s at the break; Carlos Pena and Ryan Howard continue to struggle with their Batting Avg (for those in Roto Leagues), while the latter has an unacceptable OBP (.327), both have hit north of a .520 SLG.

Biggest Surprise

In the category overall I don’t think there are any real surprises, however, I will accept that Justin Morneau truly belongs in the discussion of top first basemen.  This is what I said about him in March, “His power is just below the Top 10, but after consecutive MVP-type seasons at the age of 28, he’s just entering his prime.  PECOTA shows a repeat of last year’s numbers with a slight decrease in runs batted in.” I’m willing to accept that I was a moron for leaving him off the Top 10 list.

Sell High Candidate at the Break? (Icon Sports Media)

Second Base

Second Base is not quite as “barren” a position for fantasy purposes as it was several years ago, but without a single top prospect in MiLB projected for 2nd base in the future, you’d better keep what you’ve got…or try and get what someone else has got…and soon.

What went right

It takes no genius, fantasy or otherwise, to handicap the top 2nd baseman in baseball in Chase Utley, who has not missed a beat after off-season hip surgery; however, Ian Kinsler has given Utley a run for his money for the top spot amongst fantasy 2nd basemen; Brian Roberts, Brandon Phillips, and Robinson Cano have all fared well enough to warrant a spot on the Top 10 list.

What went wrong

Dustin Pedroia has played well enough, but below expectations this season; Dan Uggla has hit better as of late, but struggled mightily to begin the season; Kelly Johnson was mercifully placed on the 15-day DL after losing his position to Martin Prado in Atlanta; and Rickie Weeks was sidelined for the remainder of the season with a wrist injury in May, off a hot start.

Biggest Surprise

Marco Scutaro. The ultimate utility player qualifies at 2B, 3B, and SS this season.  While he will likely lose all eligibility outside of SS next season, his 2009 first-half make him the clear Fantasy Baseball Sleeper MVP. The thing savvy owners need to do is determine whether one season break-out a keeper makes, or whether it presents an opportunity to sell high, and acquire other chips for your franchise…for 2009 and beyond.

Tomorrow we’ll cover 3rd base, SS, and LF; with the rest of the positions over the weekend, and early next week.

In the meantime, who do you think is the biggest disappointment at Catcher, 1st Base, or 2nd Base? (Vote for up to 3 players)

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