One thing that often surprises me is the belief that 1B is a deep position—relatively speaking it is, but to truly secure an elite masher you need to be prepared to pounce early or identify your pillar and work a deal.  This year’s list reveals movement as youth begins to knock off some talented veterans, including career 967 OPS’er Lance Berkman…and with some of the talent in the minor leagues, next year’s list will look different still.

1. Albert Pujols (Age:30)-2009 Stats.- .327 Avg, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, .442 OBP, .658 SLG, 1.10 OPS

Pujols is one of the rare players who transcends eras.  There’s really not much more that needs to be said about him except he is the model of consistency.  The one thing to note is that his .299 BABIP was 18 points off his career average of .317, but he has been remarkably healthy to this point, so be careful throwing too many eggs into that one basket.

2. Miguel Cabrera (Age: 27) 2009 Stats-.325 Avg, 34 HR, 103 RBI, 6 SB, .395 OBP, .546 SLG, 942 OPS

The prodigal hitter came to blows with his demons late last season as his issues with alcohol and his weight cast shadows over the 27-year old phenom entering the 2010 season.  While it is the most over used cliché heading into Spring Training, Cabrera appears to have shed excess baggage, both in pounds and with the bottle.  If he were to dedicate himself to his craft he could push Pujols as the top keeper at 1B next season.

3. Prince Fielder (Age: 26) 2009 Stats-.299 Avg, 46 HR, 141 RBI, 2 SB, .411 OBP, .602 SLG, 1.01 OPS

The Prince of Milwaukee continues to deliver for the Crew, carrying a pitcher-less ballclub with the help of Ryan Braun, and surprising rookie Casey McGehee.    Entering his Age-26 year, Fielder should be entering his prime, which is scary considering he has a career 931 OPS, averaging 38 HR’s over his first five seasons.  PECOTA sees a slight regression of his 2009 numbers, but I don’t buy it.  I expect Prince to break the 50-HR barrier this year and push towards his first MVP award.

4. Mark Teixeira (Age: 30)-2009 Stats-.292 Avg, 39 HR, 122 RBI, 2 SB, .383 OBP, .564 SLG, 948 OPS

Teixeira came to New York with incredible expectations and off to slow start (as is his M.O.) in New York started to press.  Come May 16^th when Tex went 4 for 4 with a BB, HR and 4 RBI’s and he was off to the MVP race, where he finished 2^nd behind Joe Mauer.  PECOTA and others see more of the same for the Yanks’ first baseman.  However, looking forward over the next two years, if you are able to acquire an up-and comer at 1B, look to sell high (and command a big premium) on Teixeira while he is still among the elite at his position.

5. Adrian Gonzalez (Age: 28) 2009 Stats-.277 Avg, 40 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .407 OBP, .550 SLG, 958 OPS

Well…good news/bad news.  The Padres have not yet traded Gonzalez, and this year’s offense could be even worse than last year’s.  However, given the incredible interest, he should be moved before the trading deadline to the Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, or Angels, all of whom would represent an upgrade (well…maybe not the Mets) over his current environment.  Gonzalez was a late bloomer, but will likely be among the top 3 at the position heading into 2011.

6. Ryan Howard (Age: 30) 2009 Stats-.279 Avg, 45 HR, 141 RBI, 8 SB, .359 OBP, .571 SLG, 931 OPS

I wonder whether Howard’s World Series struggles last season will have a carry-over into the regular season.  Clearly he is among the top sluggers in baseball today, but while he is often compared with Prince Fielder, he’s nearly 5 years his elder.  The Phillies have so much offensive talent that his RBI numbers could conceivably elevate (scary huh?), but PECOTA is not quite as bullish, showing a regression in power and runs driven in.  Like Teixeira, look to sell Howard high if you have a younger alternative, but if given the opportunity to keep one, I would let Howard walk before Tex.

7. Kendry Morales (Age: 27) 2009 Stats-.305 Avg, 34 HR, 108 RBI, 3 SB, .355 OBP, .568 SLG, 924 OPS

Kendry Morales finally lived up to his prospect-hype, filling in for the departed Mark Teixeira.  For the money the Angels didn’t miss a beat.  Most projections have Morales suffering a slight regression on last year’s numbers due in some part to his high BABIP in 2009, but either way entering his Age-27 season and a likely line of .290/28/90 ensures Morales is among the top First Basemen in baseball.

8. Joey Votto (Age: 26) 2009 Stats-.322 Avg, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, .413 OBP, .567 SLG, 958 OPS

Last year was a tough one for Joey Votto.  After suffering from depression related to the death of his father in mid-season, he rebounded in late summer to put up some very respectable numbers.  Given his age and incredible bat speed, Votto is the most likely to jump to the top of this list heading into the 2011 season.

9. Kevin Youkilis (Age: 30) 2009 Stats-.305 Avg, 27 HR, 94 RBI, 7 SB, .413 OBP, .547 SLG, 961 OPS

Last season Youkilis was on our Top Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Third Basemen list, and while he will split duties at the hot corner with Adrian Beltre, and 1B with Victor Martinez, he will carry the AB’s to maintain his leadership at First Base.  Youkilis is one of those players you love if he’s on your team, and hate when he’s competing against you.  He’s a grinder whose skills should improve with age.  If you’re looking for additional eligibility and consistency, you can bet on Youkilis over the next few years.

10. Justin Morneau (Age: 28) 2009 Stats-.273 Avg, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 1 SB, .362 OBP, .515 SLG, 878 OPS

Morneau is the type of player the BBWAA loves—a run producer.  But while I don’t love him, considering he missed the last 16 games of the regular season due to back problems, his last season numbers were pretty solid.  The question will be whether the chilly confines of new Target Field will impact his swing and his balky back early and late in the season.  The Twins acquisition of Orlando Hudson to join Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer and Justin Kubel should present plenty of opportunities to rack up RBI’s for the Canadian slugger.

Share this Post: