Courtesy: Icon Sports Media

With a surprising amount of snow in the Northeast on New Year’s Eve, and Fantasy Football in the rear view mirror for most of you, here are 10 Fantasy Baseball players to watch in 2010.

Billy Wagner, Closer, Atlanta Braves

Billy Wagner returned to Flushing, fresh from Tommy John surgery, not to a pennant contender, but to an injury ravished wasteland known as the New York Mets.  Reeling from a ponzi scheme engineered by financial advisor Bernie Madoff, the Wilpons, owners of the Mets, determined it would be in the club’s best interests to trade Wagner at the deadline, as they were unwilling to take the risks associated with offering him arbitration—which would likely have netted them a 1st round pick—and wanted to avoid losing him for nothing.  Theo Epstein more than obliged, sending C-level prospect Chris Carter (not the good Chris Carter) to the Mets for the fiery southpaw.   In the off-season, after the Red Sox offered arbitration, Wagner signed with the Atlanta Braves, netting Epstein Atlanta’s 1st rounder, and the Braves a legitimate closer.  Wagner could very easily go from waiver wire fodder to one of the top closers in the game on a competitive Braves’ team.   Don’t miss out on the opportunity to buy low on this one.

David Wright, Third Base, New York Mets

Last season as part of our Who’s the #1 Keeper in the Game article last January, we broke down the top 3 Fantasy Baseball Keepers.  Among the top 3 was Mets’ Third Baseman David Wright.   Heading into 2010, many Fantasy Baseball GM’s must determine whether the 28-year old is beginning an early downward trend in cavernous Citi Field, or whether he simply suffered a “bump along the road” in 2009.  His final numbers, .307 AVG, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 27 SB, .390 OBP, .447 SLG (837 OPS), were hardly waiver wire material, but given the expectations—especially related to power—it was a disappointment to most.  Is David Wright still among the Top 3 Third Basemen in the league?  I think so; but it’s unclear whether he’s among the Top 5 Overall heading into 2010.

Jay Bruce, Rightfield, Cincinnati Reds

In my Keeper Leagues, the discussion of who will end up being the greater baseball prospect rages on every season.  Last season it was David Price vs. Matt Wieters, with Tommy Hanson ultimately taking that crown, but two years ago, it was Jay Bruce vs. Evan Longoria.  After a .272 AVG, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 7 SB, .343 OBP, .531 SLG (874 OPS) 2008 season that netted the young third baseman a Rookie of the Year award, it appeared that discussion favored Longoria.  However, many, including myself, have high expectations for Bruce heading into his Junior season in the big leagues.  When he’s been on the field, his performance has been solid for PPA owners (less so for Roto owners) with a 162 game projection of .240 AVG, 33 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .309 OBP, .460 SLG (769 OPS), but the challenge for Bruce has been staying on the field.  He’s averaged only 105 games played over his first two seasons.  Is this the year when Bruce lives up to his high expectations?  I think so.

Brad Lidge, Closer, Philadelphia Phillies

Undoubtedly you’ve heard Phil Brody and I caution Keeper League GM’s on focusing too much on closers.  Every year there are 4 or 5 new closers to gain you valuable saves.  The key is knowing when to “hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em”.  In Lidge’s case this is a tough one.  Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro and Phillies’ skipper Charlie Manual showed loyalty to Lidge last season—even after struggles led to 11 blown saves in the regular season—by relying on his stopper skills in the World Series.  Unfortunately for Phillies fans, Lidge lost his only appearance in the Fall Classic.  Off-season elbow surgery to remove bone spurs, may help revive Lidge to one of the top closers in baseball—or not.

Vladimir Guerrero, DH/Right Field, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Free Agent)

Vlad “the Impaler” has been one of the most feared hitters in baseball over his first 14 seasons.   His 162-game average statistics, .321 AVG, 36 HR, 115 RBI, 15 SB, .386 OBP, .568 SLG (954 OPS) rank him among the top fantasy baseball players of all time.  However, last season, Guerrero’s chronic back condition, coupled with a shoulder injury, robbed him of his ability to play the field (only 2 starts in RF all season), and his power at the plate.   As a Keeper League GM, it’s incumbent upon you to determine who is on the way up, and who is on the way down.  Entering his age 35 season, Guerrero is the latter not the former.

Rickie Weeks, Second Base, Milwaukee Brewers

Weeks has been a fantasy tease—more like a mirage actually—to the thousands of Fantasy GM’s who dream of a young Keeper at second base.  In 2009 Weeks appeared to finally “break out” before breaking down 37 games into the season with a wrist injury that ultimately ended his season.  Wrist injuries are tricky, especially when they strike batters with an average eye, who rely on a quick bat to adjust at the plate.  Weeks’ owners are hoping for him to finally live up to his lofty expectations, but personally, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Jose Reyes, Shortstop, New York Mets

I live in the NY Tri-state area and am an unapologetic Yankees fan.  However, I am a bigger baseball fan, and as such have no ill will towards the Mets.   That being said, there are so many questions marks (including the questionable “re”acquisition of former Met Jason Bay) heading into the 2010 season they could singularly occupy this list.  We addressed the question marks surrounding David Wright, but in many circles they pale in comparison to the questions surrounding the legs of Jose Reyes.   Reyes is among the most valuable fantasy baseball players in the game today, and the biggest reason are his legs.  It remains to be seen whether Reyes’ wheels will return to pre-surgery form, or whether lingering issues will impact his runs scored and stolen bases.  I’d bet on a return to form—but it’s at pick ‘em odds.

Francisco Liriano, RHP, Minnesota Twins

I’m a sucker for a young, dominant hurler.  It may surprise many readers that Liriano would occupy a spot on this list.  But our long-time readers recall my feelings toward Liriano returning to dominant form last season, 1 year removed from Tommy John surgery.   I couldn’t have been more wrong.  After posting 144 K’s in 121 Innings with a 1.00 WHIP in 2006, Liriano has been unable to return to form.  While he still missed bats (122 K’s in 136 Innings in ‘09) his WHIP jumped to 1.551 last season.   Linriano, to me, is still viable sleeper to return to form in 2010.  If you have the opportunity and the roster space, grab him; and who knows, it may just work out.

BJ Upton, Centerfield, Tampa Bay Rays

Someone who understands baseball more than me can explain BJ Upton.   A true 5-tool talent, Upton flashes brilliance enough to awe scouts and Fantasy GM’s alike, but when it comes to performance, what you see is not necessarily what you get.  In a controversial trade last season, during the inaugural season of “Can of Corn Keeper League” I traded Upton and a host of others for Tommy Hanson, Adam Jones, and a few pitching prospects.  Here’s the article from last season if you care to read it.  It was, at that time, that I officially bailed on Upton.  Keeper League GM’s should do all they can to secure the younger Justin Upton, but BJ is no longer on my “top keepers list”.   After expending my 2nd round pick in our inaugural keeper draft last season, I was rewarded with  a .241 AVG, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 42 SB, .313 OBP, .373 SLG (686 OPS) season.  In a Roto league I could live with the AVG and HR’s for his steals, but honestly folks….11 HR’s?   It’s up to BJ to show whether he’s a true star this season, or simply a 3-tool player with a lot of speed in the field and on the bases.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox

Dice-K entered the 2009 season off an 18-win campaign, where he delicately pitched himself into a 2.90 ERA.  I say delicately because his peripherals were screaming for a major regression.   Well…Dice-K owners were hurt as the crafty right hander started only 12 games last season for the Red Sox, compiling a 5.86 ERA/1.871 WHIP.  Ouch.  However, after returning from a “shoulder problem”, Dice-K managed to win 3 of his last 4 starts in September, with a 2.24 ERA.   This season will present some challenges in trying to handicap Dice-K’s performance for the Keeper League GM.   With the Red Sox’ acquisition of John Lackey to join Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz, Dice will likely sit as the 4/5 starter in the Boston rotation.   If Dice can manage his pitch count, his competition should allow him a bounce back year. But…that’s why they play the games.

Happy New Year everyone, and get ready for baseball season.  93 days until Opening Day.

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