I think it’s about time we start discussing prospects who could make a big impact on draft day 2010,both for those who play in traditional Roto/PPA leagues, and those looking to acquire “game-ready” talent in Keeper Leagues.

Today, Mark Bowman from MLB.com speculated that the Braves may avoid acquiring for their outfield via free agency this off season because they believe super prospect Jason Heyward could fill the bill in rightfield on the opening day 2010.

There is no doubt about talent when it comes to Heyward, it has everything to do with his age—20 years and two months—which has scouts and executives blown away with his 2009 minor league ascent.

In just under 100 games across three levels Heyward’s final MiLB line was:

.323 Average, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 10 SB (only 1 CS), .408 OBP, .555 SLG (963 OPS)

Heyward started 4 games in the Arizona Fall League before leaving the team with a hamstring injury, but come February he will be in Braves camp making his case for a starting nod at Turner Field.

We highlighted Heyward this past season in our Top Prospects on the Farm feature and again in advance of his Arizona Fall League debut in case you missed it.

While Braves General Manager Frank Wren was criticized for his handling of top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson last season, in an effort to avoid the dreaded “Super 2″ status, it should be noted that in Bobby Cox’s final season the Braves will make a push for the pennant and Heyward could play a big part.  Buy low and buy early if possible.

Jason Heyward is a must own in all Keeper League formats and should be watched closely on draft day in traditional Roto/PPA leagues.

Jarrod Parker, the Diamondbacks’ top pitching prospect who has been experiencing elbow soreness since July, is now expected to meet with Dr. James Andrews this week in Birmingham to schedule Tommy John Surgery for late next week.

This is clearly a blow to the D-backs’ as well as Parker owners (TINSTAAPP), who will now lose the young right-hander until opening day 2011.  Parker was a “dark horse” to make the Diamondbacks rotation out Spring Training after posting  a 3.14 ERA for the Hi-A Visalia and AA Mobile with a 2.5 K/BB Ratio over 97.1 Innings.

As you know, the time horizon for complete recovery of Tommy John Surgery is nearly 18 months to the day—however in the recent past, some pitchers are able to regain both control and velocity within 12 months.

In case you missed our feature on Parker last summer as part of our Top Prospects on the Farm, take a look here.

If you’d like to follow Jarrod during his rehab on Twitter click here.

Jarrod Parker, a must-have in all Keeper League formats prior to this news, should be only kept in leagues with a 2011-12 horizon, and should not be part of the discussion in Traditional Roto or PPA leagues until 2011 at the earliest.

Real Deal? (Icon Sports Media)

The Royals’ top pick (#2 overall) in the 2007 draft, Mike Moustakas, has puzzled scouts with his inconsistency over his  two+ years in the minors.  After rebounding from a slow start in 2008 to lead the Midwest League in home runs he finished up a sub par junior campaign this season at Hi-A  Wilmington with a line of:

.250 AVG, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 10 SB (6 CS), .297 OBP, .441 SLG (718 OPS)

However, for the good folks in attendance last night, Moustakas put on a show, going 3-5 with a HR and two doubles—and 7 RBI’s against the Mesa Solar Sox.  Royals’ fans are hoping that the “real” Mike Moustakas has finally arrived.

Moustakas is a must-own in deeper Keeper Leagues, with a MLB ETA of 2011; he should not be considered in Traditional Roto or PPA leagues.

Well…it’s good news, bad news if you’re an Indians fan.

If you’re a Matt LaPorta owner hoping for an Opening Day start, not so much.

The Indians’ notified the media today that their top prospect underwent arthroscopic surgery yesterday, removing a “bony impingement” from his left hip.  Not to be confused with the labrum surgery that has become the “rage” among major leaguers over the last year, this procedure is easier to handicap in terms of recovery, making it likely that he will be available for the start of Spring Training.

While under the knife LaPorta also addressed his injured left toe, injured the last week of the season in a collision with a wall at Fenway Park.

As I said, LaPorta is young enough and the procedure is predictable enough such that he should be able to join the Tribe as they open camp in late February, however keep an eye on any setbacks that may dampen full-time expectations into April.

Matt LaPorta is a must-own in all Keeper League formats, and should be evaluated in traditional Roto/PPA leagues as we get closer to the regular season.

For those focused on Preseason Basketball and Professional Hockey, while waiting on the MLB post season to resume, you may have missed the start of the Major League Baseball Winter Leagues’ Arizona Fall League yesterday.

As we’ve highlighted previously, some of the top prospects in the game will be taking the field over the next several weeks, giving you the opportunity to monitor “prospect trade bait” as the Fantasy Hot Stove heats up into November.

Here are just a few highlights from some of the top prospects in the game from yesterday’s contests.

P.s.: Keep an eye out over the next week for the eagerly anticipated AFL debut of Stephen Strasburg.

As part of our 2009 Arizona Fall League prospect preview, we’ve highlighted prospects you should be watching with the Scottsdale Scorpions, and the Phoenix Desert Dogs this Fall.

Today we’ll highlight some upcoming prospects from the Astros, Braves, Indians, Padres and Reds’ organizations that are participating in the AFL, and who should be on your radar for next season’s Keeper League draft.

Mike Minor, LHP, Atlanta Braves

The selection of Minor by the Atlanta Braves with the seventh overall pick in this year’s amateur draft was immediately slammed by several scouts and prospect aficionados (though none as loudly as BP’s Kevin Goldstein).

However, in 4 starts at Lo-A Rome, Minor proved that he is too much for A-ball hitters, posting a 0.64 ERA in 14 Innings, with a 17/0 K/BB Ratio.   He profiles as a soft lefty who will have to rely on exceptional control to avoid being a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) in the show.

Jason Castro, Catcher, Houston Astros

The Astros, like the Braves in ‘09, heard the “cat calls” from all over baseball after selecting Castro 10th overall out of Stanford in the 2008 Amateur draft.  Since then Castro has quieted his critics (in the same way this year’s “controversial” pick Tony Sanchez with the Pirates will try to do) with a solid performance in both the Cape Cod League and at this year’s All-Star Futures’ game in St. Louis.

In a full season split between Hi-A Lancaster and AA Corpus Christie, Castro’s final line was:

.300 Average, 10 HR, 73 RBI, 3 SB, .380 OBP, .446 SLG (826 OPS)

Given the dearth of backstop talent in front of Castro, look for a fast track…especially with a solid showing in the AFL.

Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

Alonso, like Castro, was a curious pick for the Reds in 2008, but for different reasons.  With Joey Votto established in Cincinnati, it would appear that highly touted draft pick would either have to: A) learn a new position or B) try and unseat the slugging fixture at 1B.  This season the Reds took a double “whammy” with Votto missing much of the season due to physical and emotional issues, and their former #1 pick failing to live up to expectations on the farm.  In 84 games (and three stops), beginning at Rookie Ball (where he was rehabbing—and struggling), Hi-A Sarasota and AA Carolina, the former Hurricane hit:

.292 Average, 9 HR, 52 RBI, 1 SB, .374 OBP, .464 SLG (838 OPS)

The AFL will be a big “tell” for Alonso to try and get back on track as the top prospect in the Reds’ system.

Freddie Freeman, First Base, Atlanta Braves

One guy who Alonso will have to fight for playing time is a 20-year old prospect from the Atlanta Braves (no, not that prospect).  Freddie Freeman began the season at Hi-A Myrtle Beach, before being promoted to AA Mississippi to join fellow phenom Jason Heyward.  Freeman profiles as a hitting machine, who at 6′5” will eventually turn those doubles into home runs.  In 111 games this season, Freeman’s final line was: .282 Average, 8 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .363 OBP, .408 SLG (771 OPS)

Curiously, Freeman, a lefty, has +165 OPS against southpaws—if he can balance that out, look for the young man to begin knocking on the door in Atlanta sometime in 2010.

Jon Gaston, Left Field, Houston Astros

Bang.  And sometimes that’s how quickly a “non prospect” can change the discussion.  In this case the 23-year old Gaston went from non-prospect to MiLB Home Run leader in one season.  With 35 Home runs at Hi-A Lancaster, Gaston jumped up prospect boards across the country.  It will be interesting to see whether he can continue his power surge against better competition in the AFL—and in Double-A with an ugly K/BB ratio at the plate.

Jason Heyward, Right Field, Atlanta Braves

If you are a baseball fan and don’t know Jason Heyward yet, don’t worry, you will soon (See our KLGM profile from this summer here).  Heyward, a 20-year old “six” tool player, has become the consensus top positional prospect in all of baseball.  While the Braves had hoped to slowly monitor his progress throughout the minor leagues, he blazed through Hi-A Myrtle Beach, AA Mississippi, before finishing his improbably ascent at AAA Gwinnett for three games to end the season.

His final line for the season (across 3 stops) was:

.323 Average, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 10 SB, .408 OBP, .555 SLG (963 OPS)

Like most kids his age, his power is projectable and will likely come as he grows into his body.  Heyward, along with Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, and Dustin Ackley are the stars of the Winter Leagues this 2009.  If you have a chance to watch, make it happen.

We’ll continue later on the week with the Mesa Solar Sox, Surprise Rafters, and Peoria Javelinas (who the hell named these teams anyway?)

Last week we highlighted the roster of the Scottsdale Scorpions as we creep towards the start of the Arizona Fall League, an opportunity to watch future major leaguers facing one another after the conclusions of the Minor League playoffs—officially beginning the “hot stove” discussions for Keeper League GM’s across the Country.

Today we’ll take a look at some of the Top Prospects on the Farm, from the A’s, Nationals, Blue Jays, Orioles, and the Rays who’ll be competing in the AFL in two weeks.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals

Well…even if you are not a “prospect hound” following Baseball Prospectus‘ Kevin Goldstein, Baseball America’s Jim Callis, or ESPN’s Keith Law, you know the #1 “can’t miss” flamethrower from San Diego State University.  With all the pre-draft hype about Strasburg joining the Nationals for the stretch run, the Arizona Fall League will be Strasburg’s professional debut.

Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals

Storen was the 2nd pick for the Washington Nationals (10th overall) in this year’s draft and wasted no time blowing through Lo-A, and Hi-A, finishing up at AA Harrisburg, where in 10 relief appearances, put up a line of: 12.1 Innings, 1 Win, 0 Losses, 0.00 ERA, 9 Saves, 0.74 WHIP, 2.0 K/BB. Assuming Storen continues his dominance with the Desert Dogs, look for an opportunity to close next season in Washington.

Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Erbe is often an after thought among the bevy of young arms in Baltimore, including Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta, but after a solid season at AA Bowie the 3 Amigo’s may soon be 4 Tortillas (sorry I am hungry).  In 14 starts at Bowie, Erbe’s final line was:

73 Innings, 5 Wins, 3 Losses, 2.34 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.77 K/BB

Assuming that the O’s can continue to develop their young pitching, the O’s can return to respectability in 2010/11 with the help of a few bats (including one below)

Josh Bell, 3rd Base, Baltimore Orioles

Bell was the primary piece the O’s received in consideration for George Sherrill this summer.  After joining AA Bowie, Bell, who had 11 HR’s 334 AB’s at the time, took off like a rocket over his final 33 games with a final line for the O’s of:

.289 Average, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 0 SB, .346 OBP, .570 SLG (917 OPS)

Whether he can stay at the hot corner will impact his fantasy value—but someone to keep an eye on.

Jemile Weeks, 2nd Base, Oakland A’s

The younger brother of Rickie Weeks, Jemile was drafted by the A’s in the 1st round last season.  This season, split between Hi-A Stockton and AA Midland, Weeks hit:

.278 Average, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 9 SB, .357 OBP, .420 SLG (782 OPS)

A switch hitter, Weeks needs to work on his left handed swing, after hitting .182 vs righties (opposed to .333 against lefties).

Corey Brown, Outfielder, Oakland A’s

The A’s 1st rounder from the 2007 amateur draft has not developed as quickly as Billy Beane would have hoped.  Now at 24, Brown will either bust or breakout next season.  In 66 games at AA Midland, Brown’s final line is:

.268 Average, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 5 SB, .349 OBP, .488 SLG (837 OPS)

We’ll have more from the other teams in the AFL as we creep towards first pitch.

As we wrap up our first baseball season at Keeper League GM, I find it mildly depressing that after August 1st, the fantasy focus slides from baseball to football.  The reason is that in most leagues, much of the trading and waiver wire activity ends as team’s finalize their playoff rosters for the stretch.

Trust me, there are millions of sites you can go to for lineup advice, and two start pitching options, but when we started KLGM, it was founded with the mission to help fill a void for those fantasy players who were focused on long-term fantasy franchise building through keeper and dynasty leagues.  Many of those decisions are done by August 1st until the off-season.

So…for our thousands of baseball followers with no interest in football, I apologize, and we’ll do our best to try better balance pennant race commentary with our football content next season.

However, as the leaves begin their annual transformation, spreading amber hue across the Northeast, we begin our preparation for the “off-season” with the MLB Winter Leagues.   Today we’ll begin, highlighting the prospects you should watch when the Arizona Fall League gets underway in mid-October.

The Scottsdale Scorpions are the first team we will highlight before games get under way in mid-October.

The Scorpions are affiliated with the D-Backs, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, and Rockies, and here are a few of the players you should watch as they jockey for positioning among the top prospects in baseball.

Buster Posey, Catcher, San Francisco Giants:

Posey has spent much of his time “riding the pine” at AT&T Park, since the Giants recalled him from Fresno on September 11th.  For the Scorpions, Posey will headline the bill of prospects in Scottsdale.  Posey should begin 2010 as the Opening Day catcher in San Francisco and is a must-own in all Keeper League formats.  If you’d like to check-out our Top Prospects on the Farm feature on Posey, click here.

Domonic Brown, Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies

JP Ricciardi’s very public and futile effort to extract the bevy of Philly’s prospects in exchange for 1 1/2 seasons of Roy Halladay highlighted just how much value the Phillies’ front office placed on Brown.  The 22-year old lanky outfielder was promoted all the way from the Gulf Coast League to Double-A  this season, where he spent his last 37 games in Reading, batting .279 AVG,  with 3 HR, 20 RBI, 8 SB, and a .346 OBP, .456 SLG, (880 OPS).  Look for Brown to continue his ascent within the Phillies organization, as either a future star, or trade bait.  Brown’s ETA is likely not until mid-2010 or early 2011, and remains a wait and see in most Keeper League formats.

Brandon Allen, First Base, Arizona Diamondbacks

Allen came to Arizona by way of Chicago, as Kenny Williams traded the power-hitting prospect in exchange for hard throwing prospect Tony Pena.  While we’ve had the opportunity to catch a glimpse of Allen in the big leagues after rosters expanded, the Winter Leagues should give him the ability to build on his pitch recognition—which abandoned him at the MLB league level, after respectable numbers throughout the minors.

Wilin Rosario, Catcher, Colorado Rockies

Baseball Prospectus‘ Kevin Goldstein was particularly bullish on Rosario heading into the 2009 season, and at the mid-point of the season it looked like a case of expectations gone bad (.239 AVG, .262 OBP, and .351 SLG) at Hi-A Modesto.  However, in the second half, Rosario has regained some luster, hitting .319 AVG, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 0 SB, .365 OBP, .507 SLG (872 OPS) in 20 games.  While he may never develop the power to impact your fantasy roster, if he can maintain contact, he might be someone to watch early next season as a “keeper” draft sleeper.

Cole Gillespie, Left Field, Arizona Diamondbacks

Gillespie joined the D-Backs this summer in a trade that sent Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee.  He spent the last 42 games in AAA Reno, putting up quality numbers, hoping to make the club out of spring training next season.   The 25-year old hit .304 AVG, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 8 SB, .418 OBP, .514 SLG (932 OPS) for the Aces, and while his advanced age and limited OF options at the big club make him a long shot for any fantasy value, the AZL has been known to boost prospect credibility quickly.

Jose Tabata, Outfield, Pittsburgh Pirates

The 21-year old enigma departed the Yankees organization as their highest ceiling positional prospect last season in the deal that sent Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Bronx.  While Tabata’s “raw tools” were rarely in question, his attitude, work ethic, and bizarre personal circumstances made him “persona non-grata” in Yankee-land.  Tabata regained his elite prospect status in some scouts’ eyes after a rebound campaign in a Pirates’ uniform.  Tabata finished this season with a total line (split between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis) with a line of .293 AVG, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 11 SB, .357 OBP, .406 SLG (763 OPS).   The Pirates offer an immediate opportunity for Tabata to see some playing time at PNC park next season, if he’s able to show progress in the Winter Leagues, and during Spring Training.

Over the next week, we’ll cover the remaining teams in the Arizona Fall League, and who you should be watching when the Winter League begins October 13th.

Have a great weekend.