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Posted by Mike Caprio July 10, 2009

Likely outside of our 5 pre-season prediction participants, no one cares—but since there are at least 5—and I said I would, here is an update on how each of us is faring at the break. Click here if you’d like to see our post back on Opening Day.

AL East: Since most of us had the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays winning the East or Wild Card, it’s still anyone’s guess who will end up on top.

AL Central: Myself, Mike Minnix and Joe Buccellato had the Twins winning the Central, while Phil Brody of “From the Dugout” fame (Hey Phil…where’s the fourth installment?), and Chuck Omphalius had the Cleveland Indians winning the central.

AL West: Phil, Chuck and Joe had the Angels winning the division as a “safe pre-season bet”, while Minnix and myself went out on the limb and took Beane’s rookie arms.  Bad choice on the A’s.

NL East: Like the AL East, our selections were split amongst the Phillies and the Mets.  Looking like the Phils will take it at press time.

NL Central: All of us took the Cubbies and all of us could be dead-wrong.

NL West: Phil, Chuck and myself took the Dodgers, while Minnix took the Giants, and Joe took the D-Backs.  Bad decision Joe.

NL Wild Card: 3 of the 5 who took the Phils/Mets to win the division, selected the other to win the wild card, while Minnix and Joe took a rough road picking the Braves and Reds, respectively.

AL MVP: Joe selected Kevin Youkilis and I selected Mark Teixeira, while Chuck and Phil selected Grady Sizemore, and Minnix picked Matt Holliday.  Looks like I am the front-runner in this race at the break.

AL Cy Young: Three of five projected Jon Lester to win the award, while Joe projected Kevin Slowey and I predicted Roy Halladay.  With an awful BABIP and some tough luck for Lester, looks like Joe and I are neck and neck at the break.

AL ROY: With Snider, Wieters, and Cahill our group selections, it looks like we all get an F- on handicapping prospects.

AL Manager of the Year: Not much better than ROY.  Joe’s the only one whose selection (Francona) may not get fired this season.

NL MVP: Looks like Chuck nailed this one (Pujols), as the rest of our guys are either hurt, suffering from Citifield-itis, or were suspended for use of fertility drugs.

NL Cy Young: Looks like Phil has this one nailed down with Tiny Tim, while Johan struggles in Queens and Dan Haren has no offense to support his 2.16 ERA.

NL ROY: Maybe a tad better than AL, with Chuck selecting Dexter Fowler— who has a reasonable, if unlikely shot at winning the award.

NL Manager of the Year: Chuck and Minnix have the best shot at landing this one with their selections of Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa, respectively.

We’ll look at this again in the Fall, with the winner getting a Keeper League GM T-shirt (yeaah!)

Loyal readers…thanks for humoring me.

Posted by Mike Caprio June 5, 2009

In the “post-steroid” baseball world, we’ve seen some interesting things—unusual increases in obscure injuries, bulky players slimming down to a “shadow” of their former self, and a power vacuum for players who had grown accustomed to belting 25-30 HR’s a season.

I don’t want to cast aspersions on “Big Papi”, David Ortiz, but speaking strictly as a Fantasy General Manager—especially one in a Keeper League—what does this year’s performance mean for one of the most feared hitters in baseball over the last 5 years?

For those under a rock for the start of the season, Ortiz, with a career OPS of 922, this year is hitting:

.187 AVG, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 0 SB, .281 OBP, .289 SLG (570 OPS)

Keep in mind…this isn’t a week-long slump for Ortiz, this is a 48-game sample.  Worse than that Ortiz, himself, appears to be lost as to the cause.  So much so that Peter Gammons alluded on ESPN Radio’s 1050 that he may hit the DL and never return.

“I’ve been thinking about getting my eyes checked — for real,”  said Ortiz, “My vision has always been 20-20, and I’m not feeling anything crazy, but I’m going to get it checked out.”

Last year, Ortiz’s Age-32 year, began a drop (though not drastic) across the board in all major statistical categories.  

In just 109 games Ortiz hit:

.264 AVG, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB, .369 OBP, .507 SLG (877 OPS)

While Ortiz is today’s example, he serves simply as a proxy for a bigger question in Keeper/Dynasty Leagues—when do you “sell low” on a fading (in this case plummeting) veteran?

Tell us what you think on David Ortiz:

Posted by Mike Caprio June 3, 2009

Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook will undergo “minor” surgery to “clean out” bone spurs in his right ankle according to ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio & John Clayton.   Westbrook’s agent Todd France was quick to downplay the impact this will have on Westbrook starting training camp on July 29th.  He was also quick to separate this injury from the high ankle sprain that has plagued Westbrook for the last two seasons.  

Several unnamed sources in ESPN’s report indicate they believe this procedure could delay Westbrook’s participation in Training Camp and potentially the start of the regular season.

Thankfully for Eagles fans, they had one of the better drafts this off-season, including 2nd round pick RB LeSean McCoy out of the University of Pittsburgh.  For a draft report on he and the other impact runners in this year’s draft, check out the Keeper League GM 2009 Rookie Report here.

If I were a Westbrook owner, given his agent’s “doth protest too much” position on the surgery, his injury history, I would consider moving him in the off-season or prior to declaring your keepers.

Posted by Mike Caprio May 27, 2009

(Icon Sports Media)

The St. Louis Cardinals did reasonably well over the first month of the season without power-hitting third baseman Troy Glaus.  However, with injuries to outfielders’ Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, their offense has become anemic, hitting just .217 as a team in May. 

To compound matters, Cardinals’ General manager John Mozeliak indicated yesterday that the Redbirds may have to get used to the idea of living without Glaus for the remainder of the season.

The St. Louis Post Dispatch quoted Mozeliak as follows:

“It seems if he were getting better or improving to where he was getting closer to doing some baseball activities we would be getting more feedback.”

The Post speculated that Indians’ utility-man Mark DeRosa and Rockies’ third baseman Garrett Atkins may be targets for the Cards.

Surprisingly, the Post didn’t reference the Cardinals’ top prospect on the farm, third baseman Brett Wallace, just promoted to the PCL with the AAA Memphis Redbirds.  In 10 games Wallace is hitting:

.310 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, .333 OBP, .405 SLG (.738 OPS) 

Before being promoted to AAA, Wallace spent the first month of the season at AA Springfield, where in 32 games he hit:

.281 AVG, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB, .403 OBP, .438 SLG (840 OPS)

Wallace, admittedly needs some seasoning at AAA but should be considered as a potential replacement player in St. Louis as we creep closer to the All-Star Break.   Either way, one to keep an eye on.

Wallace is a must-own in all Keeper Leagues and should be watched closely in deeper Roto/PPA leagues as these personnel decisions unfold.

Posted by Mike Caprio May 14, 2009

Can He Finally Put it All Together? (Icon Sports Media)

For those who are still “locked-in” to Fantasy Baseball, you may have missed a great article by ESPN’s “Professor” John Clayton on his picks for NFL Sleeper Teams in ‘09-’10.

The case “the Professor” makes is that most of his “prophecies” are driven by QB’s—who also coincidently have begun to supplant RB’s in Fantasy superiority over the last two years.

Let’s take a look at the Fantasy implications of each of the 8 teams he highlights in his article:

1. Seattle Seahawks

The “Professor” believes that with a healthy Matt Hasselback, the Seahawks’ newest pass catching weapon T.J. Houshmandzadeh, combined with the emerging TE/TD threat John Carlson, should equate to a 24 points per game offense.  This would greatly improve not only the likelihood of the Seahawks making the playoffs, but that Hasselback will return to form as a Top Fantasy Football QB.

2. Chicago Bears

This one is fairly obvious.  Take a good running team with no QB; trade for a “fantasy stud” at QB, and off to the races.  Clayton sees 24 points per game for the Bears in ‘09—expect a very big year from Devin Hester (if he can stay healthy).

3. Cincinnati Bengals

Another fairly obvious observation in my opinion, the Bengals will reap the benefit of a healthy Carson Palmer.  Unfortunately they have to off-set the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Chad #85 and the newest Bengal WR Laveranues Coles should benefit with additional looks downfield.  According to Clayton a “Palmer-led” offense should average 24-26 points per game (almost 100% improvement over last season). Again…great bet for a rebound QB.

4. Green Bay Packers

This I don’t agree with.  If Fantasy owners get ‘08 results from the ‘09 Aaron Rodgers, they should be ecstatic.  I would be surprised if he’s able to duplicate the 26 points per game averaged last season.

5. Houston Texans

I’m not on the Matt Schaub “bandwagon”, and until he demonstrates an ability to stay on the field (and perform) I find it very hard that the Texans can ride Steve Slaton to an improvement over last year.  Andre Johnson is the “Larry Fitzgerald” who hasn’t broken out yet.  I’ll quickly join the Schaub “bandwagon” if the pitch-catch combination in Houston finally starts to click.

6. Washington Redskins

I was pretty sure that Jim Zorn would have Jason Campbell playing well by mid-season.  In Weeks 2-4 he looked very good; solid poise and smart decision making.  Then in Week 5 the Skins headed to Philly to face Jim Johnson’s “Blitz-krieg” and outside of the Lions, Campbell didn’t see a 100 QB rating for the rest of the season.  Still…there’s reason to hope, and based on the Skins going full-on defense in this draft shows they are making a commitment to Campbell.  He has some weapons, so it’s just a matter of putting it all together.

7. Buffalo Bills

Ummm…your RB is suspended for the first three games, your QB battle could be settled via coin-toss (Ala Romeo Crennel), and you have just added the most controversial WR in NFL history (who is coincidentally shooting a reality show as we speak), and this makes the team better?  Totally disagree with John Clayton on even a marginal improvement; a difficult situation in a very difficult division.

8. Cleveland Browns

This is one team that I think could be poised for a “breakout”.  According to Clayton their strength of schedule drops below .500 this season.  Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are both capable QB’s.  Assuming that Derek Ward/Jamal Lewis and Braylon Edwards can perform to their abilities, they could be a deadly offensive team.  Rookie WR Brian Robiskie from Ohio State is another possession target for the two-headed QB monster.   I actually thought Eric Mangini did a pretty good job in New York, and I think Cleveland fans will be pleasantly surprised this season.

Posted by Mike Caprio May 8, 2009

I was walking along the Seine River in Paris yesterday when my Blackberry exploded with ESPN Alerts, Twitter updates from Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) and text messages from my buddies in the states.  

24 hours later, with the news cycle dying down a bit, I wanted to post something that Fantasy Baseball owners should recognize in this “new age” of baseball:

You Cannot Trust Any Player You Own

It’s as simple as that.

I think that everyone who watched baseball—even on a cursory basis—believed that something “was up” with Rogers Clemens and Barry Bonds, two players into their 40’s who were crushing records and breaking statistical models like PECOTA.  

To a lesser degree there were probably those who believed that A-Rod was just too good to be true.   In both cases, the pessimists were rewarded with vindication.

Now here we are with Manny Ramirez, who I personally regard(ed) as the “Best” Righthanded hitter I have ever seen.   Of course Manny is claiming that this positive test was simply a “misunderstanding”, “mistake by his physician”, as Buster Olney calls the litany of excuses: “The Dog Ate my Homework” routine.

So…as a Fantasy Baseball fan, and for those who play in Keeper Leagues especially, how does this impact you?  

Well…first, losing one of your sluggers, your closer, or your ace for a minimum of 50 games (nearly 1/3 of the season) can bankrupt any chance of competing for a championship.  

But second, and most important, what is the “true” value of a risky star?

I personally hope that Albert Pujols, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Papelbon, and even Uber Prospect Matt Wieters are the “real deal”, and don’t rely on PED’s to put up their gaudy (and valuable) numbers.  

But at this point, we just don’t know.

Unfortunately, as a fan and a committed owner, you must use your instincts.

As they say in business; if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is.

Give us your take:

Be back full-time on Tuesday…

Posted by Mike Caprio May 1, 2009

Thanks to loyal fans like you, the Keeper League GM community continues to grow.  As such, we wanted to “re-brand” the site with a new logo.

If you have a couple of minutes weigh in on the one you like the best…if you feel strongly about one or the other post a comment and we’ll take that into account in the final revision.  I’ll be making the decision on Sunday…so give us your thoughts.

Logo #1

Logo #2

Logo #3

Logo #4